The value of milk production in Ireland in 2023 is forecast to drop by almost €1.4 billion to €3.6 billion this year, according to a new outlook report published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).
The report, published today (Thursday, December7) provides an early estimate of the value of agricultural outputs, inputs, and income for 2023.
According to Mairead Griffin, statistician in the agricultural accounts and production section of the CSO, the fall in the value of milk production and a decline in the value of crops this year will have a major impact on the agricultural operating surplus for 2023.
Griffin said: “The year’s results are dominated by two outputs, namely milk and cereals, which both experienced large drops in value.
“Milk prices are expected to contract by almost 27% and with just a marginal fall in production volumes, the value of milk is estimated to decline by almost €1.4 billion to €3.6 billion, bringing it back to just 7% above its 2021 value.
“The value of cereals was impacted by both prices, which fell by a third, and lower yields due to unfavourable weather at key times during the cereal growing season.”
The value of crops is expected to be down by 11% – €299 million – to €2.3 billion this year due to the impact of lower cereal values.
The CSO has estimated that the 2023 agricultural operating surplus will drop by 32% to €3.2 billion in 2023 because of the sharp fall in milk and cereal values.
According to the Output, Input and Income in Agriculture – Advance Estimate 2023 report cattle and sheep values will also fall marginally this year.
Cattle values will be down by about 1% while sheep values will drop slightly by 2%.
Overall cattle prices grew by 4% in 2023 but volumes are expected to be down around 5% by the end of this year.
CSO has estimated that the value of cattle will be in the region of €3 billion – a slump of €44 million on 2022 values.
“Despite marginal growth in output volumes the value of sheep is expected to contract by 2% (€6 million) to €371 million due to lower prices,” it also outlined.
Meanwhile Griffin added:” There is some good news in relation to pig and poultry production. Despite lower volumes, pig values are expected to be up by 12% to €694 million due to prices increasing by 22%.
“Poultry values are forecast to grow by 11% to €226 million due to the combined impact of prices rising by almost 6% and volumes also increasing.
Overall, it is estimated that the value of livestock will grow by 1% to €4.6 billion in 2023.
Fertilisers
The latest figures for 2023 – which are provisional and based on the latest available data – highlight that the cost of fertilisers is expected to drop by almost a third to €824 million, because of a 22% fall in prices and a decrease in the amount used.
The statistics office has also estimated that the cost of energy and lubricants will fall by 5% to €605 million mainly because of lower prices.
“In relation to input costs, we estimate that intermediate consumptions costs will fall by 5% to €7.5 billion,” the CSO added.