There have been plenty of contradictory statements from government departments and political parties about whether Ireland will, unilaterally it seems, introduce a form of milk quota or cap on the national herd.
There is either no joined-up thinking on the issue or perhaps, more concerning, an attempt to position what will be an effective suppression of Irish agri/dairy output as being something else.
I recall that in the 1990s when industrial relations (IR) was being replaced with the somewhat softer concept of human resources (HR), an example of the new softer approach was that instead of being sacked, an employee was to be told that they had qualified for negative employment enhancement.
So, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it must be a duck.
Introducing a quota or suppressing production
More fundamentally, in the context of the realities we are now living in, perhaps the most bizarre feature of this policy muddle is that it seems that suppression of Irish agricultural output is still being proselytised within government as being a fundamental requirement of Ireland’s climate action policy.
This would give no recognition to current food security issues, either globally or locally.
It also gives no regard for regional or national impacts on what is the biggest sector in the Irish economy in the context of Irish economy expenditure -a sector that supports in excess of 260,000 jobs.
Never mind the perverse direct impact of increased global emissions through carbon leakage due to the suppression of low emission Irish agri output and its replacement by non regulated / higher emitting countries such as Brazil for beef and India or Pakistan for dairy.
This attitude also ignores the tough but achievable emission reduction targets in the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) curve and other abatement measures.
It seems that following the onslaught of negativity against the agri sector, and livestock numbers in particular over the last two years, national policy is not about reducing emissions per se, it’s about reducing cow numbers and agri output.
Milk quota
Not only is this prejudice represented in the milk quota narrative, but also in the context of access to and pricing of fertilisers currently.
This ideological prejudice against livestock numbers and livestock farming seems to be in huge contrast to the more pragmatic approach taken with regard to fossil fuels.
Again in the context of recent announcements to build new gas generation plants and the assessment of the impact of the war in Ukraine on gas and oil prices and availability, government actions represent a politic that contrasts dramatically with the attitude to Irish agriculture.
So, in the very near term and indeed even over the medium term of the next five to 10 years, the government is determined to secure national energy supplies to meet growing energy demand, largely deriving from fossil fuel sources on a practical basis.
This is while still defending its commitments to climate actions and the decarbonisation of the non agri parts of the economy, which account for 65% of national emissions.
At the risk of repeating myself, I would suggest that this super pragmatic approach to the non agri economy is in huge contrast to the one dimensional ‘output reduction at all cost’ approach we see for Irish agriculture.
War changes everything
There have been a lot of rethinks deriving from the invasion of Ukraine and the horror visited upon the ordinary citizens there, both in terms of the need for action reflecting a humanitarian approach to fellow European countries, but also rethinks in the context of EU military policy, EU energy policy and just lately EU agri-food policy.
While these are all very diffident contexts, the pre-war approach to energy and food seem to have a number of the same characteristics i.e., an indifference to EU production capability and an increasing overdependence on external sources to meet growing demand.
This is clearly very true in the case of the EU Green Deal which, at its heart, has the intent to suppress EU agri food production, with no sense of the inherent dangers that such a policy means for basic food supply/security, while food pricing is left to the dominant food retail sector.
In the context of both the capability of the Irish agri sector to deliver emissions-levelling and then reductions, while improving its water quality impacts and the fundamental changes in broad EU policy that current realities are highlighting, a more balanced approach to Irish agri output in a climate context is urgently needed.
Simple suppression of Irish agri output was never a good fit with global climate change challenges and increasing global demand for sustainable food production. It certainly isn’t now.