Brazil had the highest level of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from land-use change between 2012-2021, according to a new report.
The annual Global Carbon Budget, published today (Friday, November 11) at the COP27 UN Climate Change Conference in Egypt, is based on research from over 100 scientists in 18 countries, including Ireland.
The report found that global carbon emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) are projected to be 3.9 GtCO2 in 2022, which is ten times less than fossil fuel emissions.
Together, Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo contributed 58% of the global total land-use change CO2 emissions.
The report noted that deforestation, the main driver of land-use emissions, had remained high in the last decade.
It claimed that carbon removal through reforestation could work to offset around half of the emissions associated with deforestation.
Carbon emissions
The Global Carbon Budget said that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere in 2022 is set to be 51% above pre-industrial levels.
Global fossil emissions are set to grow by 1% in 2022 to be slightly above the level recorded before the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019.
Emissions from oil are anticipated to increase by 2% this year, mainly due to aviation, coal emissions are expected to rise by 1% to hit a new global record, while there may be a slight drop in gas emissions.
This year, emissions are set to fall by 0.9 % in China and 0.8 % in the European Union but will increase by 1.5% in the United States, 6% in India, and 1.7% in the rest of the world.
The report warns that the opportunity to limit global average temperatures increases to 1.5°as envisioned under the Paris Agreement is getting tighter.
Based on current emissions, there is a 50% chance that threshold will be breached within the next nine years.
Highlighting the level of response which is needed, researchers said that reaching new zero emissions by 2050 would require an annual decrease comparable to the fall seen in 2020 due to the Covid-19 lockdowns.
The report does note that the rate of increase in emissions from fossil fuels has slowed from 3% per year in the 2000s to around 0.5% per year in the past decade.
Researchers said that the ability of oceans, forests and soils to act as important carbon sinks is being impacted by climate change.
A carbon sink is anything that absorbs more CO2 from the atmosphere than it releases.
The report shows that ocean and land sinks have continued to grow with increasing CO2 in the atmosphere to take up around half of carbon emissions.
However, between 2012 and 2021 the impact of climate change has reduced growth capabilities by 4% for ocean sinks and 17% for land sinks.