The total availability of EU cereals in 2022/2023 is expected at an almost identical level to the previous season.
A higher level of beginning stocks (+20% to 50.1 million tonnes) will help compensate for lower production which is forecast to decline to 286.4 million tonnes (-2.5% year-on-year).
The details are outlined in the latest short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2022, published by the European Commission.
The drop in production is due to the hot and dry spring in key EU cereal production areas and could fall further if current overall adverse weather conditions, notably drought, continue, the report states.
EU cereals exports
This level of availability will ensure adequate supply for domestic consumption and will also allow, combined with lower imports, EU cereals net exports to increase to 33.5 million tonnes, according to the commission’s report.
This, it said, will partially offset the drop due to the blockage of the Ukrainian sea ports and export restrictions in place by some exporters.
EU oilseed areas for the 2022/2023 harvest have increased substantially (7.5% year-on-year) due to high prices and the temporary derogation to allow the sowing of crops on fallow land.
In particular, sunflower plantings increased the most due to their low water and fertilisation requirements.
EU oilseed production is forecast at 32.1 million tonnes (+7.8% / 5-year average), including a record 11.1 million tonnes of sunflower seed, allowing to compensate for the loss of supplies from Ukraine.
2022/2023 EU sugar marketing season is expected to start with beginning stocks of 1.9 million tonnes (+58% above last season).
The production is forecast at 15.8 million tonnes, in line with a 5-year average, while consumption is expected to remain stable.
Protein crops
The estimated EU protein crops production stands at 4.28 million tonnes in 2021/2022 (-3.6% year-on-year), according to the commission’s report.
The total domestic use for protein crops is estimated unchanged at 5.44 million tonnes, although with a shift from feed to food, with increased net imports covering the deficit.
In 2022/2023, sown areas of protein crops are due to increase following the relaxation of the greening obligations.
The projected increase in area stands at 6% (2.2 million ha) thanks to an additional land made available through the derogation applied on ecological focus areas.
Yields are also expected to grow by around 3%. These two factors combined imply that 2022/2023 EU protein crops production is forecast to reach 4.8 million tonnes (+13% year-on-year).
Domestic demand is expected to increase by 4%, both for human consumption and animal feed. Thanks to the increased production, EU exports are expected to grow (+19% year-on-year) with small decrease in imports (-5%).