Afforestation of 18,000ha per annum is needed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, according to the “The Economics of Afforestation and Management in Ireland: Future Prospects and Plans” report launched today (Tuesday, September 6).
Although planting has been outlined as the single largest land-based mitigation measure available to reach this target under the Climate Action Plan, the existing fall off in afforestation levels risks carbon sequestration.
Due to declining levels of forest plantings over the past two decades, the forest estate will move from being a carbon sink to a carbon source, according to the report.
While a total of 690,000ha has been planted over the past 100 years, reaching 11% of the total land area, the area planted has declined substantially in recent years with 2021 only planting 8% of the 1995 peak.
Despite an annual planting target of 8,000ha, which is actually 10,000ha below what is required, Ireland is currently far below the need to achieve 18% land cover in forestry by 2050.
Report author and chair of social and public policy at the University of Galway, and forestry challenge co-lead in SFI BiOrbic Bioeconomy Research Centre, prof. Cathal O’Donoghue said:
“The more we fall short of the afforestation target, the greater will be the need to deliver CO2 reductions from other sources including agriculture, unless there was a major reduction in animal numbers with consequential economic impacts.”
The cost in terms of the state carbon price of missing afforestation targets by 6,000ha is more than €400 million at a €100 carbon price per ton over a 40-year forest rotation, and €1 billion relative to what is needed, according to the report.
Afforestation report
The report highlights the opportunities and challenges of delivering national forestry goals to deliver carbon neutrality by 2050, and outlines recommendations which can help achieve afforestation targets.
While beef and dairy targets of Food Harvest 2020 were met early, the forestry target was never achieved – only once in 2010 was even 50% of the forestry target met, according to the report.
“If the afforestation target had been met, it would have allowed for carbon neutral dairy expansion,” the report stated. O’Donoghue added:
“Without a major afforestation strategy, it would be impossible to achieve carbon neutrality objectives using rewetting or agriculture alone.”
About 50% of all farms would have a higher income from forestry than agriculture for Sitka Spruce, and about 30% have a higher return for broadleaf, as outlined in the recently published report.
However, this differs by farm system as only 11% of specialist dairy farms would have a higher return from forestry, compared to nearly 80% of cattle rearing farms, and 70% of cattle finishing farms.
The CEO of business management consultancy firm AuxiliaGroup, which commissioned the report, Paul Ryan added that it is critical to link farm incentive programmes in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to forestry.
The report also provides an economic and cost-benefit analysis of financial incentives for afforestation, and outlined the need for the development of a forestry development agency.