UK November wheat futures increased by £8.25/t last week, according to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB).

Grain prices reached multi-week highs last week due to the re-escalation of the conflicts in the Black Sea and Middle East, plus concerns about European crops.

But the seven-day period ending July 10 saw gains capped by rapid harvest progress bringing new supplies to market, and positive early yield results from the Black Sea.

Meanwhile, also on July 10, Ukrainian strikes against Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov led Russia to temporarily stop shipping moving from the Don River into the Sea of Azov.

This could disrupt Russian grain exports, as according to sources reported by Reuters, as almost 25% of Russian wheat exports pass through the sea.

As a result, Dec-26 Paris wheat futures rose sharply and reached a seven-week high on Friday, while Dec-26 Chicago wheat futures reached a six-week high.

Significantly, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed after the US and Iran again traded air strikes. Nearby Brent crude oil futures gained 5.4% last week, closing Friday at $76.01/barrel.

Maize

In Western Europe and Hungary, the hot, dry weather continues to impact maize crops, which are at the crucial ‘silking’ stage.

As of July 6, just 47% of French maize was in good or very good condition, down from last week’s 58%, according to FranceAgriMer.

Trade association Coceral cut its estimate of the EU-27 maize crop by 4.5Mt from its 10 June estimate.

At 52.7Mt, the crop would be the lowest since 2007 and could push more animal feed demand towards wheat and barley in Europe.

Coceral also cut its forecast for the EU-27+UK wheat and barley crops from June, by 2.9Mt and 1.2Mt respectively, due to the weather.

On Friday (July 10), the US Department of Agriculture cut its estimates of global wheat and maize stocks in 2026/2027 by slightly more than the market was expecting.

This puts more pressure on crops that are still growing or yet to be planted, such as in South America, to perform and avoid further cuts to stock forecasts.

In the short-term, the market is closely watching the US and Black Sea maize crops. These are also silking, but so far, it is thought that rain has helped support crop conditions.

Meanwhile, the continuing, hot and dry conditions are accelerating the pace of harvest 2026 across Ireland, UK, and Europe.

Final grain yield figures should be available in the near future.