A number of competing factors are impacting on global grain markets at the present time, according to the AHDB (Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board).
But the end result is a ‘steady-as she-goes picture’, at least in the short-term.
Where wheat is concerned, further cuts to the European wheat crop could lead to some support for prices both short and longer-term.
However, the continuation of competitive supplies from the Black Sea will limit any gains.
Where maize is concerned, much of the US crop is now maturing with the harvest underway in some areas. It is envisaged that adverse weather, impacting now will have little market impact.
Meanwhile, on this side of the Atlantic Ocean, poor conditions and cuts to European maize crop production will limit price losses for corn on an international basis.
The 2024 barley harvest is now complete, to all intents and purposes, across Europe and North America.
Cuts to European production continue to be counterbalanced by higher production estimates in Australia. In addition, barley will continue to follow price movement in the wider grains complex.
Last week saw international wheat futures fall by an average of 4.0%.
According to the AHDB, this came about on the back of tensions easing in the Black Sea. The previous week had seen a missile strike impacting on trade. However, competitive export levels have now resumed.
Global grain markets
Improved weather last week in the US midwest, as well as an upwards revision to the Russian wheat crop also impacted on market trends.
Despite concern over drought conditions in the US maize belt, plentiful rain fell over key growing regions over the last few days.
There is little rain forecast over the coming week and the proportion of the US maize area in drought conditions as of September 17 was 26%, up from 18% the week prior.
However, given that much of the crop is now maturing and harvest is underway in some areas, any impact from these conditions will be minimal.
The Irish grain harvest is now complete. Spring crops have outperformed winter cereals by a considerable margin. The quality of spring wheat, oats and barley crops is reported to be very high.
Irish merchants are expected to confirm 2024 harvest prices over the coming days.
Revisions to European grain output continue to limit global grain price losses. The European grain trade association, Coceral, cut its estimate for the EU-27+UK total grain crop to 280.3 Mt.
This is down significantly from its previous estimate of 296.0 Mt made in June, and down from 294.2 Mt harvested in 2023.