Teagasc has released its 2027 sectoral roadmap for dairy – which is an estimated projection of where the dairy sector will be in seven years’ time.

“The roadmap is a ‘best estimate projection’ of where each sector is headed based on the current known mix of economic, social and policy drivers,” according to Paul Maher, assistant director of Knowledge Transfer in Teagasc.

Market and policy issues

The prospects for the Irish dairy industry remain positive, largely based on growing global demand for grass-fed dairy products. Ireland’s milk production will continue to grow over the next decade, with grass-based production still our key competitive advantage.

The sector will continue to face challenges, such as milk price volatility, which is expected to continue to be a feature of dairy markets into the future.

Another challenge is the reduction of its environmental footprint, by using products such as protected urea and increased use of low emission slurry spreading (LESS), while also using precision breeding and higher levels of grassland management.

Teagasc highlighted that it is important to maintain the family farm model of milk production, as alternative models of land use and management are expected to become more popular, while also stating that increased integration between the dairy and beef sectors will be required to manage larger numbers of dairy beef calves.

Increasing national herd size to continue

It is estimated that there could be up to 17,000 dairy farms in Ireland by 2027, with the national herd size increasing to 1.65 million, and an average herd size of 100 cows.

Increased cow numbers will mean that milk production will also rise to an estimated 9.5 billion/L, with average milk delivered per farm being 557,750L at 3.6% protein and 4.4% butterfat.

Table 1: Current and future sector sizeTable source: Teagasc

Environment and land use

The continued expanding size of the national herd will increase the land required for Irish dairying. The need to improve sustainability will require a reduction in nutrient loss to water, while also reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) and ammonia emissions from the dairy sector.

Focus areas for dairy farmers:

  • An overall focus on the improvement of nutrient – both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) – use efficiency;
  • A continued focus on grassland management to increase pasture utilisation, increase clover content and reduce chemical N fertiliser use;
  • The implementation of appropriately designed ecological measures to halt the decline of biodiversity;
  • The implementation of targeted actions to reduce risk of point source (farmyard) and diffuse (land) losses of nutrient to water.

Research Actions

Teagasc researchers plan to develop and test technologies to increase N use efficiency, while improving grassland management at farm level, which also includes improvements in soil health and use of white clover and multi-species to replace chemical N.

Teagasc will demonstrate environmental sustainability practices on all Teagasc research and demonstration college farms, with plans to develop an integrated, sustainable dairy beef demonstration farm.

It also proposes to develop genetic evaluations to facilitate the further development of both the Economic Breeding Index (EBI) and the Dairy Beef Index (DBI).

Teagasc plans to increase the level of sexed semen and genetic merit of beef sires used in the dairy herd, while also trying to develop an index to assist the trade of dairy calves to beef farmers.

In addition, the authority plans to develop a system to monitor and improve animal welfare, animal health and product quality, while also monitoring and reducing antibiotic usage on dairy farms.

Advisory and education actions

Teagasc advisors and educational officers will work with dairy farmers to accelerate the transformation of dairy farming towards more sustainable systems, by developing a targeted advisory campaign and also expanding its discussion group network.

It will collaborate with milk processors and other industry stakeholders to promote best practices and support innovation by Irish dairy farmers.

A programme will be developed to promote and support contract rearing of both dairy replacements and dairy beef progeny.

Teagasc also plans to build its capacity of advisors to effectively engage with clients and students. The main aim of these advisors will be to improve soil fertility (correcting soil pH and both (P) and potassium (K) deficiencies). It will promote the inclusion of clover into some grass swards and efficient use of both organic and chemical N.

These advisors will promote the use of PastureBase Ireland for improved grassland management decisions. Teagasc believes the combination of these actions is expected to lead to a reduction in chemical N usage on average.

Performance indicators for spring calving dairy herds

Teagasc has also outlined the expected production levels for 2027, with several key areas being targeted to increase production levels, while decreasing GHG emissions.

These include increased levels of grass utilisation and decreased concentrate feeding per cow and higher economic breeding indices (EBI) of the national herd.

There is also a big increase of 48% expected in the usage of protected urea and a 70% increase in LESS slurry-spreading on farms by 2027.

Table 2: Performance indicators for spring calving, manufacturing milk production herds