International grain prices remain under pressure according to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB).

Specifically, May 2027 forward markets for feed wheat in the UK fell by 1.9% over recent days. This brought prices back to £198.75/t.

Markets were pressured by improving global supply prospects, US harvest progress, falling crude oil prices, and hopes of Russia–Ukraine peace talks.

These outweighed support from continued Black Sea export disruption, according to the board.

Geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea remain a key watchpoint.

Strikes on merchant shipping are continuing to disrupt Russian and Ukrainian seaborne grain exports.

The upcoming peace talks on November 10-11 offer some hope of a resumption of Black Sea shipments, but its outcome remains a key watchpoint.

With the US export demand falling behind last year’s pace, a new US wheat and sorghum sales agreement with Chinese buyers gave some support.

However, according to the AHDB, uncertainty over future Chinese demand remains.

Grain prices

With the US maize harvest reported 74% complete by November 2, the weather risk premium for the harvest has almost fully unwound.

Dry weather is also forecast for the coming days in key maize-producing states.

Private estimates show there is still uncertainty over the final crop size. Either way, ample supply is likely to keep limiting any upside in the near term.

This trend has also been confirmed by the latest figures published by the International Grains Council.

They point to the upward availability of cereals and oilseeds on world markets.

Global grain production was revised upwards by 7MT to 2,427MT tonnes, this month with higher maize production forecast,

Meanwhile, soya bean production is expected to increase by 2% to a record 439MT; up 8MT year-on-year.

This is is due to record US and Brazilian output. However, consumption is anticipated to reach 446MT, which is reducing carryover stocks.