Grain price: Crop reports generally ‘good’ around the globe

In general, crop reports from around the world are good.

Russian wheat has been estimated at a record level for this time of the year at 78 million tonnes for the 2019/2020 season. However, winter crops are reported to be in “ok” condition, while dry weather is a worry for spring wheat crops in particular.

Reports from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) show crops in good condition across Europe. 79% of French soft wheat crops are rated “good” or “excellent”.

Soil moisture contents are below normal across much of the continent and advice is to keep an eye out for further dryness in the coming weeks.

Ukrainian wheat is also forecast to have a “bumper” harvest. Soil moisture levels are low, but rainfall levels are close to normal.

The majority of winter wheat in the US is also in good (52%) or excellent (12%) condition.

At this time last year, just 27% of winter wheat was in good condition, while 7% was in excellent condition, according to the United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA’s) crop report released on May 6.

Spring wheat is causing concern, however, as just 22% of spring wheat had been planted up to May 5 – in the six states which produced 99% of US spring wheat in 2018.

This is 27% behind the four-year average. Just 4% of the wheat planted had emerged on May 5. Good weather is expected in the coming days.

Corn planting has also been delayed in the US, as poor weather stops progress.

As of May 5, 23% of corn had been planted across the 18 states that produce 92% of the US corn crop. This is half of the four-year average for the time of year, which is 46%.

Prices at home

Talk of harvest prices at home is quiet. This week Glanbia offered a base price of €151/t for green wheat and €140/t for green barley. The outlook isn’t for any dramatic or positive change in the near future.

LIFFE

Nearby LIFFE wheat (May) closed at £156.95/t on Tuesday, May 7, and moved downwards on Thursday to £155.75/t.

The November price was significantly lower. It started the week at £144.50/t, but dropped to £142.75/t on Thursday. By Friday afternoon that price was at £143.00/t

MATIF

MATIF wheat (May) finished on Monday at €185.00/t and while it dropped slightly on Wednesday to €184.75/t it returned to €185.25/t on Thursday. However, on Friday afternoon it slumped again and hit €183.25/t

The December price was trading at approximately €10/t lower. It finished at €176.25/t on Tuesday, before dropping during the week and landing at €174.00/t on Friday afternoon.

CBOT

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) sat at 439.50c/bu on Tuesday evening, May 7. The US-China trade deal no doubt contributed to the drop that followed. On Thursday, the July price fell to 429.50c/bu.

FOB Creil (Two-row malting barley)

Free-On-Board (FOB) Creil moved downwards this week. Last week, the price finished at €191.00/t.

On Monday, May 6, that dropped to €190.00/t and continued to slide on Tuesday to €189.00/t, before hitting €188.00/t on Thursday and €187.00/t on Friday.