Irish farmers are being advised to prepare for more droughts in the coming years due to climate change, according to a new study.

Research led by Maynooth University found that warmer temperatures and evaporation levels directly linked to climate change will make for drier farming and land conditions.

The analysis outlines how future summers are set to become warmer, not just during the day but also at night.

The study examining this year's record breaking summer found that "human-caused warming" has already increased the likelihood of extreme July potential evapotranspiration (PET) by approximately 8-fold and the intensity by 7% in Ireland.

PET is the maximum amount of water which can be evaporated from soils and vegetation if sufficient water is availabile.

The research indicates it was this evaporation demand which exacerbated the effects of low rainfall and drought conditions experienced across Ireland in July.

Study

The study, supported by Met Éireann and Teagasc, examined how climate change impacts summer weather and how this may change in the future with further warming.

Researchers found that as global temperatures rise the likelihood and intensity of future July PET events is expected to further increase.

They noted that drying in July is being driven by rising temperatures, which leads to more evaporation, rather than changes in rainfall.

"Really dry Julys in terms of low precipitation levels, like those experienced this summer, are becoming rarer.

"However, when these exceptionally dry Julys do occur, they areexpected to bring even less rainfall," they said.

Drought

The Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC) previously voiced concern about the impact of climate change, including increased heat stress combined with prolonged winter rainfall, on agriculture.

This summer's drought led to many farmers, particularly in the south and south-east of the country, increasing supplementary feeding and using winter fodder reserves for livestock as grass growth was restricted.

The conditions also had a severe impact on many tillage and horticulture crops.

As global temperatures continue to rise, the researchers expect soils to become increasingly dry during the warm summer months.

"What, historically, has been seen as unusually dry soil conditions will become increasingly common under further global warming, and it is important that farmers start to plan for such an eventuality rather than seeing the past summer as a one-off," they said.

Farmers

Dr Claire Bergin, from Maynooth University's ICARUS Climate Research Centre, said: "While warmer summers may sound appealing to the majority, the added evaporative potential the high temperatures provide is a cause for concern for those who rely on the land for their living".

"We know Irish winters are getting wetter and, in turn, resulting in later season waterlogged fields.

"The effects of climate change are no longer a future problem.

"We must reduce our reliance on fossil fuels now, so that our meteorological future resembles the conditions our society hasgrown accustomed to, and needs, to maintain a steady economy," she said.

Climate change

Paul Moore, climatologist at Met Éireann, noted that Ireland has experienced its second consecutive warmest summer on record, while six of the ten warmest summers have now occurred since 2001.

"We are now in a rapidly changing climate, both in Ireland and globally.

"In Ireland, this is evident from the increasing frequency of broken records along with an uptick in extreme weather events," he said.

Elodie Ruelle, senior research officer at Teagasc, said that managing variable weather conditions is "at the core of farming".

However, she said "higher evapotranspiration, increased variability and more frequent extremes will place additional pressure on Irish agriculture".

"Greater flexibility, together with the ability to recognise emerging pressures and adapt management early, will be increasingly important in preparing farms for conditions ranging from too dry to too wet," she said.