The Farm to Fork and Biodiversity Strategies under the EU Green Deal will reduce the competitiveness of EU agricultural produce, both in the EU and internationally, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

In a study by the USDA’s Economic Research Service, the US agricultural authority said that the EU’s targeted reductions in the use of land, antimicrobials, fertilisers and pesticides “would lead to a reduction in EU agricultural production and reduce its competitiveness in domestic and export markets”.

The study added that, if similar reductions were adopted beyond the EU by its trading partners, it would have knock-on consequences for “worldwide welfare and food security”.

There would also be changes in farm incomes in the EU, which could decrease by as much as 16%, assuming the targeted reductions are uptaken only within the EU.

The US researchers claimed the decline in agricultural production in the EU would range from 7% to 12%.

The study also argued that the decline in agricultural production would tighten the EU food supply, resulting in price increases that impact consumer budgets.

Production decrease in the EU and elsewhere would lead to reduced trade, the study argues, although it adds that some regions would benefit depending on changes in import demand. However, if trade is restricted as a result of the imposition of the proposed measures, the negative impacts would be concentrated in regions with the world’s most food-insecure populations.

The declines in production and trade, coupled with the projected increases in food commodity prices, would significantly reduce the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP), according to the report.

Even if the reductions targeted in the two strategies are applied exclusively to the EU, the number of food-insecure people would increase by an additional 22 million to 2030, compared to a situation where there were no reductions.

If the reductions are replicated on a wider international scale, this figure could increase to as much as 185 million, the study claims.