EU dependency on imported soy is 'structural and severe' - report
A new report has said that Europe’s dependence on imported soy should be treated as a "strategic vulnerability".
Researchers have made the case that this should be treated with the "same seriousness" Europe has brought to energy and defence.
The report, 'From dependency to diversity: a strategic scenario analysis on reducing Europe’s soy import dependency by 2035', was developed and produced by The Protein Project, with a number of researchers involved.
The report presents a scenario analysis of how protein diversification can help to improve EU food security and affordability.
Using soy as a leading case study, where the EU sources 91% of the soy protein it uses from just three countries, the report models four complementary strategies spanning the full value chain from farming to consumption, and tests combinations against a common target: a 20% reduction in soy imports by 2035.
The report determines that this reduction in EU soy imports by 2035 is achievable, but only through a balanced combinationof four strategies outlined.
Strategies
The first strategy analysed in the report expands European protein crop production, growing more legumes and protein crops for feed and food.
The second optimises circular feedstock use, redirecting safe, protein-rich agri-food side streams back into the food and feed system.
The third scales innovative protein production, using biotechnologies such as advanced fermentation to add new protein that needs no soy.
The fourth diversifies protein consumption, broadening the mix of protein sources across European diets.
Researchers said spreading effort in a "balanced way" across all four strategies proved the most feasible.
"Every strategy rests on levers with real world limits: the land that can be turned over to protein crops, the agri-food side streams that can be safely repurposed for food and feed, the realistic growth of innovative protein production capacity, and the dietary change that can actually be sustained."
EU dependency on imported soy
The report outlined that the EU’s dependency on imported soy is "structural and severe".
Without access to imported high-protein meal, the report warns that the EU could lose an estimated 15% of its beef and dairy production, around 40% of its pork production, and up to 60% of its poultry and egg production.
It described soy as the "protein backbone of European livestock farming".
"Soy enters the EU food system through two channels: animal feed, which accounts for the vast majority (around 90%) of use, and food products such as tofu, soy drinks and processed foods," it said.
"Overall, the EU produces only 9% of the soy protein it consumes, and the exposure is even sharper in the feed segment.
"The EU is broadly self-sufficient in roughage and reasonably strong in some other feed sources, yet critically exposed in high-protein feed materials."
Brazil, Argentina and the US together supply 86% of all EU soy imports.
The report highlights that an average EU citizen consumes 60.6 kg of soy per year, of which an estimated 55kg is consumed indirectly, embedded in the meat, dairy and eggs on their plate.
Food security
The report said that food security should be a "cross-cutting EU priority".
It said that the EU’s livestock sector rests on a supply chain that is "both structurally exposed and highly concentrated".
"A disruption of those flows would ripple through feed and food systems, destabilise supply chains and could cost the EU up to 40% of its current livestock production capacity," it said.
"The risk of disruption is unfortunately not hypothetical, but a pattern that history has demonstrated repeatedly, and that recent geopolitical events continue to reinforce."
Researchers said that protein diversification is a "credible and measurable" part of the answer.
They said that this report has shown that a 20% reduction in EU soy imports by 2035 is achievable, but only through a balanced combination of all four strategies: expanding domestic protein crop production; optimising circular feed use; scaling innovative protein production; and diversifying consumption patterns.
"The balanced approach unlocks something greater than the sum of its parts," the report said.
"It distributes effort in a way that is feasible, efficient and fair -keeping each strategy within demonstrated reach, generating positive outcomes for farmers, consumers, rural communities and the environment simultaneously."
The report also highlighted the "unique policy window" now open, with the EU’s comprehensive protein plan expected shortly, alongside the post-2027 Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform and the EU Livestock Strategy.
