EirGrid, the state-owned business which operates the national grid, is predicting an electricity supply shortage over the coming years as fossil-fuel power stations are gradually closed in line with climate action measures.
As electricity production from these plants decrease, demand will move in the opposite direction, increasing largely due to the increasing number of data centres in Ireland.
The Generation Capacity Statement (GCS), which is published annually by EirGrid, examines the likely balance between electricity demand and supply during the years 2021 to 2030.
It says that if no action is taken, there is the potential for a shortfall of electricity in Ireland over the next five winters.
“We expect system alerts to be a feature of the system over the coming winters and this winter is likely to be challenging,” EirGrid chief executive Mark Foley said.
The report found that, despite a short-term reduction in electricity use due to Covid-19, demand in Ireland is on the rise and in the long-term it will increase significantly due to the expected expansion of “large energy users”, with data centres being one of the largest users.
Large users are expected to account for 27% of electricity consumption by 2030.
The report also predicts that, over the course of the next five years, there will be a shortfall of around 1,650 megawatts (MW) of generation in Ireland.
“It is clear from the report that new, cleaner gas-fired generation is required now to address this issue, especially for when wind and solar generation is low,” Foley argued.
“Appropriate volumes of dispatchable flexible gas generation are critical to support the transition to a low-carbon power system into the next decade, as we move to 70% renewables by 2030 and, ultimately, a zero-carbon power system,” he added.
The report says demand is set to increase as consumers find new ways to use electricity, with government policies expected to encourage consumers towards alternative heating methods, such as electric heat pumps, and modes of transport reliant on electricity production.
Most of this demand is planned to be met from wind and solar energy as the power system shifts to renewables by 2030.
“There is a clear plan in place to secure electricity supplies in the short to medium term by retaining existing generating plant coupled with the deployment of temporary generation as required,” Foley pointed out.
Speaking this morning (Wednesday, September 29) on RTÉ Radio 1, Minister for Environment, Climate and Communications Eamon Ryan said that Moneypoint power stations in Co. Clare can be used “as a back-up” to make up a shortfall in electricity production from renewable source in the coming years “as a last resort”.