A study carried out by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) has confirmed that existing debt is preventing a significant number of farmers across the EU from looking to the future with any degree of confidence.

In addition, such circumstances will commit these farmers to continuing with existing management practices, rather than grasping the opportunity that could be presented by new business models.

The JRC report was discussed at this week’s 2020 EU Agricultural Outlook conference in Brussels. Entitled ‘Farmers 2040’, its content and recommendations take account of the major economic factors that will impact on European agriculture over the next 30 years.

The views of active farmers and agri stakeholder groups were also canvassed extensively. These latter perspectives were gleaned from discussion panels that were established across Europe over the past couple of years.

Agriculture trends

The macro trends referenced within the study include: changing consumer eating preferences; farming’s response to global warming and the challenge of environmental sustainability; plus changing land use patterns. A distinct change in farmer expectations regarding the development of their own careers is also profiled within the report.

The report references the numerous part-time career opportunities that will evolve for farmers over the next three decades. Significantly, all of these changes will be underpinned by farmers committing to continuing education and developing the requisite networking skills.

12 future farming profiles are discussed in the report. However, its authors stress that farmers will not be pigeon-holed into one or other of these classifications, rather they will pick and choose from the mix of profiles that best suit their circumstances.

The ‘adaptive’, ‘corporate’, ‘intensive’ and ‘patrimonial’ farmer profiles developed in the study take many of the well-established characteristics of European agriculture and project their evolution with the technological and socio-economic changes expected to come.

These changes include digitalisation and new biotechnologies, as well as the evolution of agricultural markets, consumption patterns and economic inequalities.

Potentially disruptive technologies

The ‘controlled environment’ and ‘cell-based’ profiles look at emerging, and potentially disruptive, technologies for food and other related production.

‘Social care’, ‘regenerative’ and ‘urban’ profiles explore social trends in more depth. These trends include urbanisation; health and wellness; community building; and redefining our relation to nature.

‘Lifestyle’, ‘serious hobby’ and ‘community-provisioning’ profiles converge around socio-cultural trends. These are trends like the changing nature of work; ‘back-to-the-land’ and slow food; informal knowledge; and informal governance networks.

According to the authors of the report, its results will broaden the view on farmers and their possible future roles and realities while also providing useful evidence to explore the potential impact of policy measures.

They are also a starting point and an invitation to continue the discussions on the future of farmers and agriculture in the EU.

The study aims to help increase awareness and bring farming closer to other citizens. The material developed for the study will be made available and could be used as a basis for organising encounters between citizens and local farmers.

Future land availability options are not discussed directly in the report. However, its authors recognise that new business options adopted by farmers will dictate how they produce food. This could include the attainment of direct funding from the consumers they are actually supplying.

Significantly, the report recognises that farmers who commit to future production models that maximise food output will have to scale-up, become more efficient and interface more regularly with corporate financial institutions.