Based on Bord Bia’s analysis of the beef marketplace, the supply of cattle this coming Autumn is likely to be less than expected.
Joe Burke presented the data to the Beef Forum last week. His data showed that there was 35,000 less male cattle between 24-36 months and 9,000 less female beef cattle in the 24-36 months age category on June 1, 2016 compared to June 1, 2015.
For some market commentators, this provides a strong indication that cattle supplies for the rest of 2016 may be tighter than had been previously expected.
According to Burke, the average UK cattle price is currently equivalent to €3.96/kg excluding VAT, which reflects the effect of the weakening in the value of Sterling in recent weeks, which reduces their value in euro terms, and makes Irish beef exports less competitive into the UK market.
He also said that the year to-date Irish R3 steer price 5% above Continental EU average: 18c/kg higher (€3.86 vs. €3.68)
Burke said that on the home market, sales of beef at retail level performed quite poorly, with overall volumes falling by 5% for the year.
In Britain, he said the fall in sales was less severe, and this was in spite of a more dramatic increase of 6.7% in the retail price.
The next example of beef consumption Burke cited was in France, where overall beef sales in supermarkets up to the November 4 were down 4% on the previous year.
According to Burke, Germany is the only major market in the EU to actually experience an improvement in consumption, which he said may be attributable to their stronger economic climate in comparison with other Member States.
To see the full Bord Bia presentation click here