International wheat prices continue to gain momentum, according to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB).

During the last week of August, UK November 26 futures’ markets closed at £215.75/t, up £10.75/t (5.2%) on the previous seven days’ trading.

This strengthening price trend has been impacting on markets for a number of weeks.

Meanwhile, September deliveries of feed wheat to East Anglia have been reported at £213.00/t, with November deliveries priced at £215.50/t.

Looking further ahead, November 27 futures’ prices gained £6.00/t during the last trading week of August to reach £208.00/t, also its highest price up to this point.

Market drivers

A number of factors are impacting on global grain markets at the present time.

According to AHDB, grain futures rose sharply at the end of August following reports that Russia was considering increasing its missile strikes against Ukraine.

The reports dimmed hopes that grain exports from the Black Sea could pick up.

Buying by speculative traders was also reported to be a factor in the price rises.

Nearby Chicago wheat futures reached its highest price since February 2023, with the December 2026 contract up 12.1% for the week ending August 28.

In tandem with this, December-26 Paris wheat futures gained 5.4% over the same period.

There are reports that Russia is re-routing some exports through the Baltic Sea. However, initial forecasts for September suggest total exports will stay constrained.

Meanwhile, LSEG reports that there is a long queue for Ukraine’s ports on the Danube River. 

In addition, Brussels has cut its forecast of the EU-27 maize crop by 1.8Mt to 50.1Mt based on updated yield forecasts. The equivalent figure for 2025 was 60.2Mt.

This smaller maize crop will mean more wheat, barley and oats being used for animal feed in place of maize.

The Black Sea is likely to stay a key driver of prices over the coming days, as the market continues to assess availability elsewhere.

Australian crops

Turing to the southern hemisphere, the Australian government revised up its forecasts for wheat and barley production in 2026/2027.

This follows recent rain and larger-than-expected crop areas.

The 2026/2027 Australian wheat crop is now pegged 3.1Mt higher than in June at 29.9Mt, with barley up 2.3Mt to 16.4Mt.

The crops would now be 17% and 3% lower than last year, respectively.

Significantly, the oat crop was down slightly from June but still 3% ahead of last year.