UK wheat prices were up £2/t in the latest trading round, further consolidating the upward trend in grain prices recorded over recent weeks.

UK November 2026 contract wheat prices ended the week ending Friday, August 23 at £205/t.

According to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), Friday’s UK price was approximately £1/t higher than the December 2026 Paris milling wheat futures’ contract price on the same day.

Grain futures prices rose last week after the Pro Farmer crop tour in the US reported poorer-than-expected potential for maize crops.

As a consequence, December 26 Chicago maize futures gained 5.2% over the week and ended Friday’s trading at a new contract high.

US maize

Based on the tour, Pro Farmer forecasts the US maize crop to reach at 389.8Mt, down 10% from 2025’s record, with yields also down 7%.

While still the third-largest crop on record, it is a bigger fall than the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts.

Earlier this month, the USDA forecast a 6% year-on-year fall in production to 406.8Mt, with yields down 3%.

Late-season rainfall can still influence US yields. The weather conditions for US maize crops are likely to remain in focus over the coming weeks as the start of harvesting approaches.

Wheat

Meanwhile, wheat futures showed smaller gains than maize prices.

As the flow of news about the Black Sea conflict slowed, traders reportedly booked profits at the end of last week, reducing last week’s gains.

LSEG also reports that markets are now waiting for more evidence of importers switching origins.

Meanwhile, the first data on the quality of the 2026 French wheat crop showed above-average quality.

Significantly, the International Grains Council (IGC) cut its forecast for world wheat production in 2026/27 by 4.3Mt last week to 816.7Mt.

The reduction partly reflects poorer prospects in Europe, including the UK, due to the sustained heat this summer.

The global crop is now forecast at 27.5Mt below last season.

These latest forecasts also indicate increased pressure on markets from the ongoing conflict in the Black Sea.

The IGC reduced its forecasts of exports from Russia and Ukraine and increased its forecasts for their stocks by the end of 2026/2027.

This suggests that Russia and Ukraine would hold 28% of wheat stocks in major exporting countries at the end of this season, up from 18% at the end of 2025/2026.

The conflict is likely to remain a key influence on prices in the coming weeks.