Unusually warm weather could spell trouble in the months ahead for crop growers, according to the latest bulletin from the EU’s crop monitoring service, Joint Research Centre (JRC) MARS (Monitoring Agriculture Resources).
According to the January 2023 issue of the ‘JRC MARS Bulletin – Crop monitoring in Europe’, December started with relatively cold conditions in large parts of Europe, which lasted until December 18, 2022.
This was followed by an abrupt transition to much warmer weather, with the turn of the new year even seeing record-breaking temperatures.
Because of the shift, much of the cold tolerance previously built up in winter crops was lost.
Weather impact
Called de-hardening, this leads to increased frost damage vulnerability should cold spells subsequently occur.
According to the research, alternating freeze/thaw cycles can damage plants, thus reducing their vigour and negatively affecting spring regrowth.
Warm temperatures also saw snow packs in the Alps reach historic lows. If not restored, water availability for irrigation downstream will be problematic come spring.
Mild winter conditions are also associated with high pest and disease survival rates.
On the positive side, frost damage has been limited. A severe cold spell in Russia’s Volga okrug (around January 10) is likely to have caused damage, as crops were hardened but insufficiently protected by snow.
Weather forecasts to January 28, do not foresee additional frost damage in Europe.
Surplus precipitation was seen in northern and central Europe, the Benelux countries, and the west Iberian Peninsula.
This is welcomed where soil moisture and groundwater were depleted in summer 2022, but not for slowly draining soils, which are subject to anoxia when temperatures remain above 0°, and can lead to mechanical damage to crops when the water-logged soils freeze.
The rainfall deficit in southeastern Spain, southern Italy, and Bulgaria is of no immediate concern for winter crops, but caused further delays to sowing in Turkey, according to the bulletin.
In Algeria and Tunisia, where drought conditions continued, rainfall is urgently needed to avoid severe losses to crop yields.
Outlook
The seasonal forecast is for likely warmer-than-usual conditions in most of Europe in February, according to MARS.
This will be followed by a slowly decreasing likelihood of warmer-than-usual conditions in March and April in parts of the Iberian Peninsula, the north European plain, and parts of Scandinavia.
Rainfall is expected to stay close to median values in most of Europe in February, March and April, with only slightly increased likelihood of exceeding median values in Italy and the western Balkans in March, and in the Carpathian Mountains region in April.