Over the last couple of weeks some support has edged back into grain markets and by October 24, the UK feed wheat nearby futures price had risen to £119.80/t according to the HGCA.
It does however say that these values are more than £45/t below a year ago. However, they are also just over £12/t higher than the recent low seen just a month earlier, on 26 September 2014.
Latest market analysis from the HGCA suggest some of the support has come from a later than usual US maize harvest and drier than normal conditions in key wheat growing areas of Australia. Drier than ideal weather is also slowing the planting of maize crops in South America. On the face of it, these factors do not seem particularly bullish given the large crops already harvested and secured.
However, it cautions that these are the first ‘bullish’ sentiments in some time after an almost continuous flow of bearish news over the past six months or so.
It says the latest price movements suggest that much of the record production forecasts were ‘priced in’ by the market, with little risk premium left in the price.
Also, it adds that it is possible the recent rise represents the reintroduction of some caution, rather than a fundamental shift in the market outlook.