There seems to be an awful lot of naval-gazing going on within Irish dairy circles about the prospects for the sector over the next 12 months.

To be honest, it all seems like a bit of a storm in a teacup to me.

If we are lucky, Ireland may well ride out the worst of the storm at a time when cows are either drying off at the end of 2025 or striving to get milk volumes up post-calving next year.

Consider the facts. Yes milk markets are due to take a hit over the next six months. And while this is happening, milk output in the US, Canada, EU, and the UK will come back significantly.

Meanwhile, milk volumes for New Zealand will start to tail off as they normally would as the southern hemisphere autumn beckons.

Less milk in the world should see dairy markets start to strengthen again - at least in theory.

It is a fact of life that all food commodity markets will go up and down on a cyclical basis.

Additional factors

And Irish dairy farmers are well used to coping with weak milk prices. But I would argue that they have never had to face up to this challenge with so much else going for them.

International beef prices are set to remain strong for the next 12 months.

This is a reality that is already making a real difference on every Irish dairy farm when it comes to calf and cull cow prices.

And let’s not forget that Ireland has enjoyed one of the best grass growing years in living memory.

There is enough silage in the country to keep farms going for three winters, never mind one.

And in those cases where grass silage stocks might run low between now and turnout, there is no end of high quality forage maize to fall back on.

Nitrates derogation

It would be fair to estimate that 2025 will go down in the history books as the year that just kept on giving for the Irish dairy industry.

And it culminated with the retention of the nitrates derogation - what a super Christmas present for agriculture as a whole, but in particular for Irish milk producers.  

All businesses need stability if they are to plan successfully for the future.

And the retention of the derogation means that milk producers throughout Ireland can do just that.

Meanwhile, the banks continue to play a pivotal role underpinning most of the investment decisions taken within Irish agriculture.

And here it’s a case of taking a three to five year perspective on the prospects that are in store for the sector.

Technical expertise

But in truth, we are now at a stage when the ebbs and flows of global food markets are taken as a given.

The real issue that comes into play when determining the future sustainability of any farming business is the technical expertise that exists to manage its future accordingly.

And this is a matter that rests solely within the remit of the people running each individual operation.

This is why Ireland has a vibrant pig and poultry sector today.

The reality is that the people involved have tremendous technical and management expertise to overcome all the challenges that come their way.

 So will 2026 be a harbinger of further good times for dairy farming in Ireland? Céad faoin gcéad.