Teagasc is confirming that Irish grain production increased by some 300,000t in 2025, relative to the year previous.

Most of this enhanced output was generated by winter cereals crops.

A number of spring cereals suffered on the back of the drought conditions that impacted during the months of May and June.

These figures were discussed by Teagasc crops’ specialist, Shay Phelan, at Friday's (September 12) tillage crisis meeting, held in Naas .

While the increase in crop output is significant, of even more significance is the almost €40/t fall in world grain prices recorded over the past 12 months.

This will be the key factor that determines the final incomes generated on Irish tillage farms in 2025.

Another issue that will continues to impact on tillage incomes has been the considerable fall-off in the value of the basic payment for farmers producing arable crops.

Looking ahead, Phelan referenced two criteria that will impact on tillage sustainability in 2026. One of these is the projected flat-lining of world grain prices over the next 12 months.

The other is the strongly anticipated strengthening of fertiliser and all other input prices.

It is hard not to conclude that a combination of these two factors will put even greater pressure on tillage incomes next year.

Other challenges facing tillage farmers in 2026 will be the continuing rise in machinery and contracting costs.

Adding to all of this will be the envisaged increase in bank lending rates over the coming 12 months.

There was a general consensus expressed at the tillage crisis meeting to the effect that the entire crops’ supply sector – machinery dealers, contracting businesses and merchants – must react in a supportive manner to the continuing pressure that has been exerted on grower margins.

Approximately 50% of the crops produced in Ireland are grown on conacre ground. This is a direct reflection of the need for growers to maintain rotations that act to maximise crop health.

There is now a growing concern that the current strength in land rental prices will dissuade many growers from taking conacre ground in the first place.

All of this is leading many within the tillage sector to conclude that Ireland’s cropping sector may well diminish in size considerably. And this clock is already ticking.

The coming weeks could well see this become a reality, with many farmers not deciding to plant winter crops for the 2025/2026 season.