A new report has quantified the impact of the 2026 drought on Europe’s potato sectors, from both a production and economic perspective.

The work was carried out by staff in the UK-based think tank: the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit.

This analysis looks specifically at the potential impact on the 2026 potato harvest in Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands, referred to collectively as the north-western European potato growers (NEPG).  

The analysis also includes an estimate for Great Britain.

Losses

The impact of the exceptionally hot and dry weather in summer 2026 is expected to knock 3.1 million tonnes off the NEPG potato harvest, with yield reductions against the five-year average of between 7% and 21% across these four countries.

At prices agreed before the drought, this lost production is valued at between €405 million and €622 million, with a central estimate of €498 million.

When the expected impact of the drought and heatwaves on the potato harvest in Great Britain are added, this increases to over 3.5 million tonnes.

This in turn increases the value of the total lost production to between €498 million and €818 million across Great Britain and the NEPG countries.

For Great Britain alone, these losses are estimated at between £80 million and £169 million.

Last year saw a glut of potatoes produced across Europe.

So when it came to the 2026 season, growers planted less : 11% less in Germany, 10% in France, 15% in the Netherlands, and 17% in Belgium.

These decisions alone took a further 3.6 million tonnes out of the crop based on yields at the five-year average.

So, losses associated with the 2026 drought come on top of this market related contraction in supply.

Regional losses

Germany carries the largest loss at 1.13 million tonnes, followed by France with projected losses of 0.99 million tonnes. This represents the lowest recorded rate of production in more than 30 years.

Where Belgium is concerned, losses are projected at 0.79 million tonnes with half of the main frying variety below the size processors want.

In the Netherlands, it is estimated that losses will come in at 0.21 million tonnes.

Meanwhile, Great Britain is expected to lose a further 0.44 million tonnes and is heading for its smallest potato harvest on record.

According to the report, these shortages are already moving prices in every channel.

In the processing sector, Belgian free-market potatoes have gone from zero in April to €200/t or more.

German processing potatoes are making €240/t against a season low of €15 in June, and British processors are paying over £300 a tonne to secure supply against £180 in February.

Where the fresh market is concerned, French table potatoes opened the season at €520/t against €310/t a year ago, and Germany at €270-€280/t against €150/t in 2025.