Global pork prices remain weak due to stagnant demand - report
Global pork prices remain weak due to stagnant demand and oversupply, according to a new report from RaboResearch.
Sentiment is subdued across major producing regions, as prices across regions generally stay lower than the previous years, RaboResearch said in its global pork quarterly Q2 2026 report.
It said the key reason behind this is the excess supply, although the causes vary by region.
"In China, supply has expanded due to capacity expansion and productivity gains over the past five years," the report said.
"In Europe, pork prices stay low as Spain's exports continue to be constrained by its African swine fever status, leaving more pork to be absorbed within the regional market.
"In addition, Europe's pork production has risen, which also contributes to pressured prices."
Trade to remain stable
RaboResearch said trade is expected to remain stable in the second half of 2026, although structural shifts are ongoing.
"Export patterns are shifting, as Europe's market share has declined following disease issues and weaker demand from China, and Brazil has expanded share rapidly," the report said.
"Meanwhile, import patterns are also evolving, with Mexico and the Philippines significantly increasing imports, and China reducing volume.
"Trade remains vulnerable to disease developments, geopolitical uncertainties and trade policy adjustments."
According to the report, China's antidumping duties on EU pork imports, combined with the excessive supply in China, resulted in a decline of 29% in the first five months.
The report noted that changing weather patterns and the rising probability of El Nino may influence feed grain prices, however, high carryover stocks and weather risks are likely to keep conditions favourable for pig producers.
Regions
In Brazil, pork exports set a new record in the first half of 2026, with volumes up 15% and export revenues rising 36% year-on-year.
The report said rising domestic and export demand is making it challenging for producers to reduce piglet placements.
In Southeast Asia, Vietnamese pork prices have softened while imports have risen strongly. The Philippines' imports remain strong, due to persistent local supply constraints.
In North America, pork supply growth is limited, with no material sow herd growth and modest productivity gains expected.
Exports are up 9.7% year-on-year, but expected to slow in the second half of this year.
Pork consumption
The report outlined that pork consumption has remained weak across various regions, although the reasons differ by market.
"In China, weakness is primarily linked to subdued foodservice and institutional demand," RaboResearch said.
"Restaurant sales growth was up only 0.6% year-on-year in May 2026, hitting the lowest level post-covid, while consumption in factory canteens and other institutional channels remains constrained by slower industrial activities.
"In Europe, weak consumer confidence and cautious discretionary spending have weighed on foodservice, reducing out-of-home pork consumption."
RaboResearch said the US presents a similar picture, as foodservice pork usage declined in an effort to meet value price points, while at-home pork demand remains relatively steady.
"More importantly, pork markets face a structural challenge from the change in consumers' dietary preferences," the report said.
"Poultry has gained share across markets. Germany, one of the world's largest pork consuming countries, has experienced a gradual decline in pork consumption over the decades."
