Kepak Group’s livestock procurement manager, Jonathan Forbes, gave an interesting insight on the current state of play in the beef trade and future outlook from his perspective at a farm walk yesterday evening (Thursday, September 5).
Speaking in a panel discussion at the Teagasc DairyBeef500 farm walk which took place on the farm of dairy calf to beef farmer Aidan Maguire, near Navan, Co. Meath, Forbes said:
“For the type of cattle Aidan and Luke are producing here, there is a market for those every week of the year, they’re retail-spec animals, they’re exactly what the retailers are looking for and the majority of our beef is being marketed through retailers.”
The farm is producing a range of different breeds of dairy-beef cattle finished at under 24-months-of-age.
The table below details the slaughter performance of the cattle on the farm over the past two seasons:
Finishing period Stock type Carcass weight (kg) Age at finish
(months)Carcass
gradeCarcass
fatCarcass
valueAutumn 23/Spring 24 Heifers 276 23.6 O+ 3= 1,515 Autumn 23/Spring 24 Beef steers 290 21.7 O= 3- 1,510 Autumn 22/Spring 23 Friesian steers 303 24.5 O- 3- 1,536 Autumn 22/Spring 23 Heifers 287 21.7 O+ 3+ 1,388 Autumn 22/Spring 23 Beef steers 322 23.9 O= 3+ 1,536 Autumn 22/Spring 23 Friesian steers 317 24.2 P+ 3= 1,597
Forbes also affirmed the processors commitment to beef produced from the suckler herd. Responding to a farmer question on what kind of market he sees for suckler-bred bull beef, Forbes said:
“From a suckler point of view, there is a market for your bulls. Italy has generally been our traditional market for those bulls and we’re still doing heavy U and E grade bulls to Italy at 400-500kg carcass weight.
“It’s not a market we go shouting about in terms of trying to promote more production. It’s done with a specialised group of suppliers. They have the understanding we are taking them weekly and that’s the way it works.
The Kepak Group livestock procurement manager added: “As a suckler farmer myself, I do believe sucklers have a bright future. There is a role for them and there will be a role for them.”
‘Opportunity’ for bull beef?
The host of the farm walk Aidan Maguire finishes all his male cattle as steers. A question from the crowd asked Aidan if he ever considered bull beef.
Aidan said: “We’re not set up for them. They don’t appeal to us and are a little bit too intensive for our system.”
Commenting on bull beef as a production system, Forbes said: “There is an opportunity for bulls in a specialised, professional system.
“The bull kill numbers have fallen away [nationally]. I think farmers have adjusted to steers and are doing equally as well and better. They have less hardship, less problems and I think it’s an easier life [steer beef].
“The messaging from processors for the last seven years has been don’t feed a bull unless you talk to us so I think the message has eventually broken down to the farmer and he’s not doing as many bulls.”
Beef trade overview and outlook
Reflecting on the year that was in the beef trade from a beef processor point of view, Forbes said:
“We had a very difficult first six months of the year. We found the markets very, very difficult. We found the VL market [the manufacturing meat] a real challenge.
“From a supply point of view, Q4 and Q1 of the year are your two big quarters for supply of beef.
“Q2 and Q3 are your two slack quarters and what I mean by that is if we’re killing 1.8 million cattle last year, you’re probably averaging 35,000 cattle/week in Q3 and Q4 and Q2 and Q3 that’s back as far as 31,000.
“From a supply and demand point of view, it’s actually a reversal of what was 15-20 years ago. So the tight period is now Q2 and Q3 rather than winter and spring which is quite unusual from a cost of production point of view.”
“I see a period of stability in beef pricing and the outlook is positive and I say that for a number of reasons. The European beef herd has actually reducing. The Irish slaughter is forecast to be back this year and next year.”
Commenting on trend in the volume of cows being slaughtered, he said:
“I think the dairy herd reacted early this year, if you look at the cow kill in Q4 last year, we went from 9-12,000/week in cows and that was purely the dairy farmer having to react to the pressure on Nitrates for the end of the year.
“I think the dairy farmers moved earlier this year. We were running 1,000 cows/week ahead for the first two quarters of this year on cow slaughter.”
The Kepak procurement boss said: “They moved early for other reasons, grass, feed availability and perhaps money, so there were other reasons why they moved early with cows this year.
Commenting on beef markets this summer and going into the end of the year, he said: “We didn’t get a real bump in the summer around barbeque season but the Olympics helped a little bit.
“In terms of the short term beef trade outlook, there’s gaps in the supply in Europe, the price is unusually good for this time of year, we’re forecasting that the price will be up on average 3% by the end of the year for this year which is positive from a beef price point of view.”