European dairy commodity prices have experienced some stability in recent weeks, according to a new report from Ornua.

However, the Ornua Market Report for June 2026 notes there are concerns about milk supply levels and future demand.

Ornua said this suggests that currently the potential for "significant price growth" in the second half of this year remains "limited".

The report said that cheese and butter prices have stabilised, and seasonal demand may offer near-term support.

While the protein market remains positive, confidence has declined in further price rises for skim milk powder (SMP) and non-fat dry milk (NFDM).

Dairy

The report said there are signs that global milk supply has "peaked", but growth is not expected to dip below 2% until the third quarter (Q3) of the year.

This trend is expected to be replicated across the 27 EU member states.

Ornua said demand has been "solid" in recent months, adding that oil prices have dropped under $100/barrel amid hope that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen.

Trade through the strait has been largely blocked since the outbreak of the war in Iran at the end of February.

The narrow stretch of water between Iran and Oman is one of the world's busiest shipping channels for oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fertilisers.

The report noted that uncertainty persists around future dairy demand.

"Global consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending and eating out, primarily driven by persistent inflation.

"Against a backdrop of elevated near-term milk flows and strong export demand in recent months, some buyers are stepping back, and activity is quiet," the report said.

Global milk collections increased by around 2.6% in April, withgrowth again in all major regions.

Across the EU, milk collections were up 4.2% in March and are forecast to climb by a further 2.4% in April.

Irish production fell by 0.7% in March and growth is likely to belimited in April from a strong base.

April milk collections in Germany rose by 5.5%, setting a new monthly record.

While collections across France rose by 5.9% in the first quarter, they were unchanged in April.

The Netherland saw supplies grow by 3.8% in April.

In the US, milk supply grew by another 2.7% in March, along with solids continuing to expand at a faster rate.

Milk output in New Zealand continues to grow, driven by favourable pasture conditions and strong milk prices.