EU beef production is expected to decrease again this year with a forecasted drop of 1.6%, according to a new EU report.
The Short-Term Outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2023 states that the war in Ukraine is continuing to impact on farmers as high input costs and food inflation impact markets and consumers’ purchasing decisions.
Extreme weather conditions and animal disease will also affect EU agricultural production.
Report
The EU Commission report noted that “lowering energy inflation could bring some relief regarding input prices”.
“Fertilisers, especially nitrogen-based ones, could become more available and affordable compared with 2022. That being said, fertiliser and energy prices are still twice as high as at the beginning of 2020,” the report said.
Due to increased cost and climate change concerns, it is expected that the use of mineral fertiliser across the EU is to be under the long-term average this year.
Food inflation remains a significant challenge with average EU food prices 19.5% higher in February 2023 compared to a year ago.
“Consumers are expected to purchase more basic, cheaper food items and to shift preferences between different types of food, for example consume more poultry and less beef.
“Despite declines observed in some input costs, food prices are expected to remain at high level for a while before turning downwards,” the report said.
Production
Overall EU beef production decreased by 2.4% in 2022 and is expected to decrease by a further 1.6% this year.
The EU consumption of beef per capita is expected to follow a long-term declining trend as beef is more expensive compared to other types of meat.
“Given some possible price relaxation of feed costs, and assuming improved grass quality compared to last year, average carcass weights might increase, but this would not counterbalance the decreasing numbers of animals,” the report said.
EU poultry consumption could go up by 2.5% this year as consumers replace more expensive meats; imports are expected to increase by 7% to cover this demand growth.
Pigmeat production is expected to decrease by another 5% this year due to a lower number of breeding sows and the ongoing threat posed by African swine fever (ASF).
Overall, a decrease in EU sheep and goat production of 1.2% is expected in 2023, which the report said “could ensure a high level of domestic prices”.
The report noted that a decline in milk price could result in the EU dairy herd shrinking by about 1% and overall milk production falling by 0.2%.
Total EU cereal production in the 2023/2024 season could reach 288.4 million tonnes (+8.6% year-on-year), assuming normal weather conditions.
EU oilseed production in 2023/24 could increase by 7% year-on-year to reach a new record of 33.6 million tonnes, the report added.