Continuing decline in beef and lamb production 'possible out to 2030' - LMC
The Livestock and Meat Commission (LMC) has confirmed that tightening supplies characterised beef and sheep markets throughout 2025.
The same theme dominated international red meat prices during this period - hence the significant strengthening of farm gate returns in Northern Ireland, according to LMC chief executive, Colin Smith.
He said: “And there is every prospect of the same drivers dominating beef and lamb markets, possible out to 2030.
“Analysts are projecting a decline in both suckler cow and breeding ewe numbers during the period ahead.
“And with dairy cow number set to remain pretty constant, the end result will almost certainly a continuing decline in beef and lamb production.”
Meanwhile, consumer demand for red meat looks set to remain reasonably strong.
This reflects the growing recognition of high quality beef and lamb being key sources of important nutrients within a balanced and healthy diet, Smith said.
“But there will always be a balancing point between perceived demand and the prices that consumers are prepared to pay for food," he added.
“However, this is not a simple equation to work through. Many analysts now envisage a future within which consumer demand for red meat may decline at a lower rate than that of recorded cattle and sheep numbers.
“And within this scenario, farm gate prices should remain reasonably buoyant.”
The efficiency conundrum
But as beef and lamb producers in Northern Ireland look to the future, price is by no means the only factor they will need to consider as they seek to secure appropriate levels within their businesses.
“The measures and targets contained within Northern Ireland’s Climate Change Act have not been revoked,” confirmed the LMC chief executive.
“This means that livestock farmers have to improve efficiency levels within their herds and flocks.
“And this is already a reality. The Beef Carbon Reduction Scheme has been specifically developed to secure decreases in age at slaughter over the coming years.
“Up to this point, compliance with the terms of the scheme has not proven problematic for the beef sector as a whole.
“However, this scenario may well change at the age at slaughter threshold comes back to 27 months in 2026."
According to Smith, the new suckler cow scheme is "focussed on eligible animals calving every 12 months".
“The period ahead will be characterised with the introduction of other measures, all designed to reflect the need for greater levels of efficiency to be achieved right across the beef and lamb sectors," he said.
“This includes the introduction of a new genomics programme within the cattle sector, which should pave the way for the implementation of precisely targeted herd breeding programmes."
