Since 2016 with the UK Brexit vote, Irish agriculture and the Irish economy, have faced a huge challenge of ‘economic iceberg’ proportions in terms of regional and rural economic impact from the UK’s exit from the single market.
A self-imposed ideologically driven decision to suppress Irish agri output, despite this resulting in an increase in global emissions, looks like providing a second one.
There is a lot of smug amusement currently in Irish political and media circles about the latest manifestation of the post-Brexit mess created by the UK government.
The sporadic inconvenience of empty supermarket shelves has now morphed into a full-blown petrol crisis, because the UK (in pursuit of its identity-based idealism), ignored the impact that leaving the single market would have on a whole range of jobs, most particularly lorry drivers.
Last laugh for UK as Irish agri ‘iceberg’ looms?
Unfortunately for the ordinary people of Ireland, the British may well have the last laugh.
As bad as Brexit continues to be, Ireland’s impending sectoral carbon budgets, in particular the likely budget for Irish agriculture, could make the UK’s ‘own goal’ over Brexit seem trivial in comparison.
Irish agriculture has been steadily and consistently marginalised in terms of public perception and demonised, particularly over the last two years.
There has been deafening silence about the stellar performance of the sector through Covid-19 and much shrillness and mischaracterisation of Irish post-quota dairy growth e.g. as ‘intensification based on exporting food’.
Two huge crimes in an environmental lexicon that refuses to look at facts or basic comparators that show, that for all this talk of intensification, the average cow herd in Ireland is now 86 versus 56 in 2014.
This compares to a Northern Ireland average herd of 130; Wales – 150; GB – 160; and Scotland – 200.
And what about New Zealand at 550 and U.S in the thousands?
Environmental and economic context
It is perhaps no surprise that these facts or this context does not wash well with environmental lobbyists, but when and why does some media have to accept this ideological guff about exporting?
What is the small open economy about? What is foreign direct investment (FDI) about, if not exporting?
Further context was provided in several EU reports which I previously highlighted, and from analysis of the Green Deal by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), as well as a 10-year Outlook Report from Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO)/Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
They conclude:
- Suppression of Irish and EU agriculture under the Green Deal or national climate action legislation, will lead to lower global food production and higher food prices for the poorest regions;
- Much higher global emissions from agriculture because suppressed production from Ireland/EU will be replaced by production from regions that have emission levels 20 times greater than those applying in the EU and Ireland.
Perhaps a bit like what is happening with not just petrol, but also gas for home heating, a contrived shortage will have to be created for some sense of proportionality or long-term strategic planning to prevail.
Irish agriculture needs to be on the same team
Unfortunately, in addition to the extreme prejudice and ignorance being applied to Irish agriculture in the modern Irish economy, the response from Irish agriculture, to both insult and add grave injury, has been both poor and self indulgent.
This was evident in the debacle over the remarks made by Teagasc retiring director, Gerry Boyle, about suckler beef versus dairy beef.
So, while the looming carbon budget could totally undermine Irish agriculture sector output in the name of an environmental ideology that views livestock production as equivalent to oil exploration, there is a row in the agri dressing room about sucklers versus dairy beef.
A row equivalent to a fight over the deckchairs on the titanic, with the iceberg visible in plain sight in my view.
Challenges ahead – is an ‘iceberg’ looming?
Ireland’s economy and society is facing a tough post Covid-19, mid-Brexit challenge, with headwinds also likely from the new approach to a minimum single Corporation Tax of 15%.
Within the modern Irish economy, sectors such as agriculture (which supports 260,000 jobs and are the biggest single sectoral spenders in the Irish economy) can continue to underpin this unique Irish economy impact.
At the same time, they can decarbonise production processes based on science reason and balance, while also responding to real customer and consumer demands.
We really don’t need to out do the British with a set of climate bills and budgets that perversely lead to, not just Irish economy suppression but, global food price increases and increases in global emissions from agriculture.
And the sooner the focus of all in Irish agriculture is on articulating both the damage caused and the opportunity that can be grasped, the better.