Weekly beef kill figures show factory cattle supplies failed to lift significantly this autumn and have now started to fall off again after peaking at just 30,000 head.

Last year, weekly autumn factory cattle supplies reached over 40,000 head, which is at the upper end of what the Irish beef industry is capable of slaughtering and processing in a week.

Assuming most or all factories at near full capacity can manage somewhere over 40,000 cattle/week, this level would need to be at least reached if not surpassed for at least a few weeks of the year to justify the processing capacity's continued necessity.

As beef farmers will know all too well, the meat industry is a tough business and there are no 'passengers' taken at any level of the business, with any cost deemed 'unnecessary' simply not retained.

With beef kill forecasts showing no major recovery in weekly supply numbers into the short- to medium-term, it would seem processors will either have to manage to continue to operate at below optimum weekly kill numbers or else reduce the processing capacity to a necessary level - for the short-term at least.

Factories killing cattle on three or even four-day weeks presents challenges of its own in aspects like providing sufficient hours for contract staff in de-boning halls and retail rooms while also remaining competitive as an employer against other areas of the workforce.

Over 320,000 cattle have been exported this year, over 222,000 of which were calves.

Assuming a kill of 30,000 head of cattle/week, the equivalent of over 10.5 weeks of the national beef kill has been exported to date this year.

If annual cattle export numbers are to remain at this level and annual calf births continue to decline, will it result in the closure of some of the smaller or less-efficient beef factories in Ireland?

If so, is this a good thing for the beef industry? Is it a necessary step to support the high calf prices and high store cattle prices that are being seen this year or would it be better for the industry for these cattle to be fattened and slaughtered in Ireland and the beef exported instead?

These are questions that the industry will no doubt have to ask itself as the reality facing cattle supplies begins to hit home.

Click here to view the latest official beef kill figures.