The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) has just published its second harvest update for 2024.
It reflects the impact of the warm, dry conditions that prevailed up to the end of last week.
Apart from very small acreages still to be cut in Northern Ireland, the UK’s winter barley harvest is now wrapped-up.
Similarly, the UK winter oilseed rape harvest progress has advanced from 73% to 93% complete, while the wheat harvest reached 37% complete. Also, 22% of oats have been cut, and 7% of spring barley.
Harvest 2024
Variation in planting date and crop development could now mean a break in the harvest for some as some fields are not yet fit. For wheat, this is especially true where crops are thinner and secondary tillering has taken place.
However, winter cereal and oilseed rape yields are continuing to disappoint. Yields for winter barley across the UK are reported 11% below the five-year average, very close to the 12% drop reported a fortnight ago.
Winter oilseed rape yields are reported as 9% below the five-year average, and the first estimate for wheat is 7% below average.
From a quality perspective, the main concern for wheat is lower protein contents. These have improved in the past week but remain low.
While lower nitrogen (N) contents and some bushel weights are reported for winter barley, merchants report that the crop is very usable for the domestic market.
According to AHDB analysts, early reports for spring oat yields, along with spring barley yields and quality look encouraging.
Lower winter cereal yields were generally anticipated after such challenging planting and early growing conditions last autumn.
Prices
While expected, the strengthening confirmation of lower winter yields and lower grain production in 2024 will keep the UK more dependent on imports than usual this season.
This could help keep UK prices supported compared to global levels, as they have been – in relative terms – since last autumn.But the global market will still dictate overall prices.
Meanwhile, November-24 UK feed wheat futures lost £6.60/t at the end of last week’s trading to settle at £182.05/t.
The November-25 contract closed at £192/t, down just £0.95/t. UK prices were likely further hindered by a rise in the strength of sterling against the euro.
Paris rapeseed futures for November-24 gained €6.50/t to settle at €463.50/t at the end of last week. The November-25 contract also rose €6.50/t and closed at €449.50/t.