A new report by Teagasc has provided an outlook on farm incomes for 2025 in a new report that estimates average incomes for next year, as well as final estimates for 2024 average incomes.
Earlier, Agriland published the findings from the Outlook 2025 report for 2024 income figures. This article provides the findings for forecasted farm incomes into 2025.
The average farm income in 2025 is forecast to increase by 22% on 2024 to to €35,700 (2024 estimate: €29,200), but the increase will be largely driven by improved incomes in the dairy and tillage sectors.
Farm incomes estimates for 2024 and forecasts for 2025 are inclusive of support payments.
The estimated increases for most sectors are summarised in the table below (cattle ‘other’ refers mainly to beef finishers):
Sector 2023 2024 (estimate) 2025 (forecast) 24 v. 23 25v. 24 Dairy €49,432 €89,000 €113,000 80% 27% Cattle rearing €7,425 €9,500 €10,800 28% 14% Cattle ‘other’ €14,735 €17,000 €18,500 15% 9% Sheep €12,625 €15,000 €17,250 19% 15% Tillage €21,398 €30,000 €42,000 40% 40%
Dairy commodity prices will enter 2025 at an elevated level and the short term outlook remains quite positive. Taking the year as a whole, there is scope for a further improvement in Irish milk prices in 2025, given that the price for butter, in particular, is at an extremely high level.
Milk prices should hold at a high level, at least in the short term, with some reduction occurring as the year progresses. Averaging over the year, milk prices in 2025 could be up 5% on the 2024 level, according to Teagasc.
Assuming weather conditions are more favourable in 2025 than they have been in 2024, there is scope for a yield-based increase in milk production of 4% and some savings from lower feed volumes.
Margins in 2025 would therefore improve relative to 2024. The forecasted average dairy farm income in 2025 of €113,000 would represent a 27% increase on the estimated average income level for 2024.
Cattle prices are forecasted to increase marginally in 2025. The forecast is for a 4% increase in finished cattle prices and a 2% increase in weanling prices in 2025 relative to 2024, while production costs are also expected to ease slightly.
Average incomes are forecast to rise on cattle farms in 2025, with an increase of 14% in prospect for cattle rearing farms to €10,800, and an increase of 9% for cattle ‘other’ farms to €18,500.
For sheep farms, lamb prices in 2025 are forecast to remain close to the 2024 level. With a forecast of marginally lower production costs, and with continued support under the new Sheep Welfare Scheme, the average income on sheep farms in 2025 is forecast to rise to €17,250, an increase of 15% on the 2024 level.
On tillage farms, cereal prices are forecast to be marginally higher at harvest 2025. Under the assumption that trend yields are achieved, yields in 2025 would be up on the 2024 level. Factoring in stable production costs in 2025, the average tillage income is forecast to increase by 40% to €42,000.
The pig sector may be a little bit more challenged, and, while the volume of pig production is forecasted to increase by a further 1% in 2025, Irish pig prices are forecasted to decrease by 8%.
With little change in production costs forecasted, the margin over feed cost for pig farmers is forecast to decrease to 72c/kg.