Farmers are continually plagued with what can only be described as the ‘tyranny of expectation’ as they go about their daily working lives.

For example, how often in the past have cereal growers walked fields of grain at the end of June, in full expectation of a bumper harvest, only to have their hopes dashed by the torrents of heavy rain that followed in July and August?

The week just past saw another example of the aforementioned tortuous condition rising to prominence with the news that natural gas prices are now falling like a stone.

But just as farmers were getting their heads around the possibility that spring fertiliser markets might start to move in the right direction, for them came the soul-destroying addendum to the effect that the slump in gas prices came too late to impact on N, P, and K prices in the here and now.

We have been here so many times before.

No matter what seems to be happening in the world, fertiliser manufacturers always have a justifiable reason for keeping prices high, just when farmers need their products most.

Let’s be honest, nobody was going to buy fertiliser last autumn. Predictions of rocketing input costs during the first half of 2022 simply provided fodder for the likes of me and the ‘guys in suits’ to talk about in the run up to Christmas.

I don’t know how many times the issue of spring fertiliser prices has been debated in this part of the world. But nothing changes.

Each year, the farmer is expected to get his or her cheque book out and pay the full price for what fertiliser they need to keep their businesses going.

But there is a bigger picture being played out here.

The fertiliser manufacturer will always pass on the full production costs (and the required margin) to the merchant, who will act in a similar manner when it comes to sorting out the needs of primary producers.

Meanwhile, farmers have no one to turn to when it comes to sorting out their end of the bargain.

They have no option but to suck it all up and bear the full brunt of the pain and discomfort coming their way.

The silver lining associated with this dark cloud is the ammunition it gives the likes of the Irish Farmers’ Association, the Irish Creamery Milk Suppliers’ Association and the Irish Cattle and Sheep Farmers’ Association.

Over the coming weeks, they will be eye-balling agriculture minister, Charlie McConalogue, striving to get the best possible Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform deal over the line on behalf of their members.

And let’s hope the minister is listening.

Otherwise, I may be forced to declare that he, too, is part of the pernicious conspiracy that is the tyranny of expectation.