Agriland spoke with the director of Dairy Industry Ireland, Conor Mulvihill about the outlook of the Irish dairy industry in 2025.
Mulvihill admitted to the pressures that farmers have been under in the last couple of years with regards to environmental and economic pressures.
However, he was quick to speak about the positives coming through for Irish dairy, as he said that “since August/September and now right into the new year, it is going to be a great period for Irish dairy”.
Mulvihill emphasised that everything is going in the right direction in terms of supply and demand and that a lot of good work from the environmental side is paying off.
The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) recent report has showed that Irish water had the lowest amount of nitrates since 2016.
Speaking about this feat, Mulvihill said “Irish dairy couldn’t have got a better Christmas present in the context of our battle for next year”.
“All the metrics in terms of water quality are going in the right direction and that’s why Irish dairy is going to blast back in 2025,” the Limerick man added.
Irish dairy in 2025
Mulvihill said that all of the fundamentals are paving the way for good 2025 and laid out a number of points, as follows:
- Positive dairy price outlook: price higher in H1 and lower in H2;
- Increase in Irish milk production: forecasted to increase by 4%;
- Irish milk price: up 5% for year as whole;
- Weather conditions: normal weather assumed;
- Grass availability: normal conditions;
- Fertiliser prices down by 5%;
- Total cost per litre of milk down 4% on the 2024 level;
- Net margin up 29% per litre on the 2024 level.
Mulvihill said that we are receiving a good price for our grass-based product and that the fundamentals for a good milk price into spring are very strong.
“If we can hold the line and get our act together with environmental issues and hold our milk supply while improving through genetic gain and the use of technology, the opportunities for Irish dairy are huge.
“Other European countries are beginning to struggle and are under pressure with supply and we can take advantage of that as our dairying is in a really good place”, Mulvihill added.
Mulvihill mentioned that the way price milk in Ireland is ridiculous and that it needs to change as it he feels it is confusing farmers and that there needs to be an honest conversation around around it.
“When we put our figures out to Europe, it looks like we are miles behind, but in fact we are actually not, we are just using fat and protein metrics for standardisation which is from 1982,” Mulvihill said.
Water quality
Mulvihill told Agriland that “when I go home to Limerick for Christmas, I know I’m going to see a slurry tanker driving around the place”.
“We don’t want to be snitches and that’s not what I’m saying, but a culture has to come in where everyone looks at that as just not acceptable, we need to creat a culture of compliance around water quality,” he added.
If we can create this culture, Mulvihill said that “there will be no stopping the dairy industry and will help with the industry blasting back”.
Mulvihill said he is “way more optimistic about the nitrates derogation than I ever was as the science is telling us that we are making great progress through the Farming for Water EIP (European Innovation Partnership) funding”.
Mulvihill also mentioned that we now have the backing of the political parties as he said “the parties that this country have voted for have all committed to retaining the nitrates derogation which is crucially important for 2025”.