Higher wheat supplies; lower corn and oilseeds production - WASDE

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report for November last Friday, November 8.

Looking at the main crops which can affect Irish farmers’ prices, the report showed increased supplies of wheat; lower production of corn; and reduced production of oilseeds.

Wheat

The outlook for wheat globally is for higher supplies. The latest harvest forecast updates from the EU and Russia show wheat production in the EU at 153 million tonnes and wheat production in Russia at 74 million tonnes.

The forecast is also for increased production in Ukraine. The increase in yields is offsetting the impact of reduced production in Australia and Argentina.

Drought in Australia has led to the forecast production figure being below last season at 17.2 million tonnes. Dry weather has also resulted in a decrease in Argentina, where production is estimated at 20 million tonnes.

According to the USDA’s report, global consumption is almost unchanged at 755.2 million tonnes. At the same time global supplies are rising above consumption.

Ending stocks for the 2019/2020 season have increased to a record 288.3 million tonnes. China is estimated to account for 51% of that total.

Coarse grains

Global coarse grain production is forecast lower to 1,394.9 million tonnes – 1.8 million tonnes lower.

The report stated: “This month’s 2019/2020 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased trade and lower stocks relative to last month.”

In the US, corn production is forecast at 13.661 billion bushels lower – down 118 million from last month. This comes from a 1.4bu reduction in yield to 167bu/ac.

Around the rest of the world production has increased in Russia, Turkey and some African countries, while production is lowered in the EU, Ukraine and Mexico.

Global ending stocks are down 6.6 million tonnes to 296 million tonnes.

Oilseeds

Oilseeds production is down on last month. The USDA pegged its own country’s production at 3.55 billion bushels.

That’s down less than 1 million bushels according to the report which, it states, is due to “fractionally lower yields and unchanged harvested area”.

The report also stated: “Foreign production is forecast at 463.6 million tonnes, down 3.4 million tonnes on lower soybean, cottonseed, sunflower seed and rapeseed production.”