Recent days have seen global grain prices start to ease with a number of fundamental factors coming into play.

According to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), November 2026 UK wheat futures’ prices closed last Friday (September 25) at £205.75/t: down £4.00/t week-on-week.

This price activity took place against the backdrop of harvest 2026 in the UK being extremely moderate, both in terms of final yields and grain quality.

The recent reduction in global grain prices have been driven by a changing geopolitical landscape with market fundamentals largely pushed into the background.

Global wheat remained under pressure as traders focused on diplomatic efforts to ease disruptions to Black Sea exports.

Talks involving Ukraine, Turkey, India, Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries are seeking to restore shipping. Meanwhile, Turkey has submitted proposals to Moscow on maritime security.

The possibility that Russia could rapidly restart much of its Black Sea and Sea of Azov terminal capacity if a ceasefire were reached added to the pressure on prices.

In line with UK price trends, December 2026 Paris wheat futures have fallen by 2.0% over recent days, with December 2026 Chicago wheat down 1.5% for the same period.

US/China summit

Meanwhile, maize prices found modest support for most the week from the US/China summit meeting in Washington and the potential for changes to agricultural tariffs.

However, maize prices weakened after the US/China summit did not lead to immediate commitments for China to buy more US crops.

This weakness also weighed on wheat prices.

Prices later recovered modestly as pre-weekend buying emerged, and Dec-26 Chicago maize futures ended the week up 0.1%.

However, it has since emerged that China plans to reduce tariffs on a broad range of US agricultural products.

The list includes maize, wheat, sorghum, vegetable oils and meals, meat, and dairy.

However, the list excludes US soya beans, which will continue to face an additional 10% duty, according to the London Stock Exchange.

In addition, French maize crop ratings stabilised week-on-week as of September 21. However, only 23% of crops were rated good or excellent, compared with 62% a year earlier.

French maize harvest progress accelerated to 45% complete. This is up from 27% the previous week and well ahead of the 13% recorded at the same point last year.

And, finally, the latest United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Progress report, covering the week ending September 20, showed the American maize harvest at 13% complete.

This was up from 8% the previous week and slightly ahead of the five-year average of 11%.