Recent days have seen a number of co-ops confirming their harvest 2024 grain prices. They are up by approximately €20/t on those published by merchants three weeks ago.

Irish Grain Growers’ Group (IGGG) chair, Bobby Miller, has noted the increase in prices.

“International grain prices have risen by €20/t over recent weeks. However, the fact is, that three costs incurred by Irish grain growers remain extremely high.

“This pressure will be continued into 2025. New season compound fertiliser prices, for example, are now coming in at €500/t.

“Ireland’s cereal sector must evolve to deliver more premium grain opportunities for growers. These crops include malting barley and gluten free oats.

“Tirlán has already confirmed that 50% of its grain offering falls into this category. So, it’s up to those other grain merchants and co-ops to follow this example.”

Irish Farmers’ Association (IFA) national grain committee chair, Kieran McEvoy, has responded specifically to the grain prices issued by Tirlán earlier this week: €210/t for green feed barley and €220/t for green feed wheat.

Also commenting on the recent announcements by both Tirlán and Centenary co-ops, McEvoy said: “Despite the relatively dry weather for harvest and satisfactory yields for spring cereal crops, 2024 will be remembered as a very challenging year for the tillage sector. 

“The unfortunate reality is that these prices may still not cover the costs of production on rented land.

“Teagasc has forecast that average tillage farm incomes in 2024 are likely to remain very similar to 2023, which was a complete and utter disaster for the sector.”

He also believes that “price premiums paid by co-operatives and merchants for food crops such as malting barley, gluten free oats and contracted winter barley will help to mitigate the situation for some tillage farmers”.

Meanwhile, the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) has highlighted the possibility of international wheat prices strengthening into 2025.

Harvest 2024

Driving this is sub-optimal weather conditions for winter crops in Russia and Ukraine. In addition, the delayed maize harvest in France due to heavy rains, may affect the sowing of winter crops, including wheat.

After repeated heavy rains last autumn and this summer led to the smallest wheat crop in 40 years, France had its wettest September in 25 years. This, as well as further rainfall in the first half of October, has left some crop land waterlogged again.

In France, only 10% of the country’s expected soft wheat area and 20% of the projected winter barley area has been sown out up to this point.

This is low compared with five-year averages of 27% and 42%, respectively.

Argentina and southern Australia could also face weather risks in the future. Over the past week, the AHDB has received information about potential dry weather in these countries. This could support both spot and forward prices.

Meanwhile, the export volume of wheat in the current marketing year from the European Union is 29% down compared to 2023/24 figures.

In addition, lower wheat ending stocks are also expected in Russia, Australia and Argentina, compared to last season.