‘It ain’t what folks don’t know that is the problem, it’s what they do know that just ain’t so’. This rather folksy quote from Mark Twain captures where the essence of the twin pillars of ignorance and bias facing the Irish agri sector sit at the moment.
And what people ‘do know, but just ain’t so’, is both economic and environmental.
What just ain’t so is that agriculture constitutes only 2% of Irish gross domestic product (GDP) and thus has a tiny economic impact, as I was told in recent correspondence from the environmental lobby, and therefore would not be missed if it shrunk or disappeared.
What just ain’t so also is that suppression of Irish agriculture would reduce the burden on the transport sector and the energy sector in Ireland, which are clearly struggling with their own decarbonisation budgets.
Economic impact of the agri sector
So what does the truth look like in terms of both the economic impact of the agri-sector and the true impact in environmental and climate context? Real economic footprint versus delusional economic accounting!
What is true is that the Irish agri-business sector supports 260,000 jobs in the Irish economy according to the Central Statistics Office (CSO).
It also has the single highest spend of all business sectors in the Irish economy at around €16 billion in 2019, as per the CSO and Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment (DETE) [see table below].
Close inspection of profit flows and transfer pricing, versus actual Irish economy expenditure, shows that exports from the multinational sector, which inflate Ireland’s GDP figure, are valued at almost €260 billion, while the total spend in the Irish economy of all multinationals is €27 billion in 2019.
The comparable figures for the agri sector on its own, are exports of €13 billion vs Irish economy spend of €16 billion.
This unique impact of the agri sector is further underpinned by the chart above (table 19), which shows that the Irish economy impact of the agri sector is five times greater than the next biggest spender in the Irish economy, i.e. the pharma sector.
The whole truth about agri sector economics
Very clearly, ‘what is so’, in real economics terms, is that money / profits that pass through an economy, have a much smaller economic impact than money spent on people, raw materials and services in the economy.
So much so in fact, that the suppression of Irish agri output, with its huge Irish economy expenditure / multiplier effect, would arguably have a much bigger impact on the economy than a suppression of multinational activity.
But let’s be clear and not tribal or sectarian, an Irish economy still emerging from the Covid-19 pandemic, and still adapting to the challenges of Brexit, should and must avoid any (self-inflicted) suppression of either economic sector.
Environmental jiggery pokery
The environmental ‘just ain’t so’ is exposed by several points.
The suppression of Irish agricultural output, as particularly proposed through the imposition of excessive carbon reduction budgets for the sector will:
- Increase global emissions as per analysis by OECD/FAO/EU/USDA – because as the chart below from FAO/OECD shows, demand for dairy and meat globally will continue to increase but instead be met from non regulated or highly pollutive regions such as Brazil for beef and India or Pakistan for dairy;
- Will not reduce the decarbonisation budgets for other sectors in the Irish economy, notably transport and home heating, despite propaganda suggesting that this is so.
The fact that the anti agriculture bandwagon is as ignorant of economics as it is about agriculture is not a comforting thought unfortunately.
The idea that the bandwagon proselytes feel this suppression of Irish agri output is in compliance with our international commitments under the UN Paris Accord (which states that all increased mitigation practices must not have a negative impact on food production), shows how sectarian and binary the anti agri stance has now become.
Either / or?
Environment can only win if agriculture loses apparently.
Meanwhile, in the real world, Irish citizens know that the profits of multinational companies are not ours to keep or spend, and that suppressing Irish food production in favour of deforestation is not a good environmental outcome for the planet.
Nevertheless, this proselytising and promoting of both economic and environmental mistruths by the bandwagon does the overall challenge of climate action no favours.
When all of the tribal rhetoric is done, the huge challenge of decarbonising the Irish economy will very clearly involve significant collective strain, effort and sacrifice.
Sacrifice in this instance does not mean offering up your neighbour’s livelihood and future on the basis of a long-held sense of moral superiority, which in the end is belief in information that ‘just ain’t so‘.
Decarbonisation will require a mature, balanced, non tribal approach across a fully functioning multi-sectoral Irish economy, very much including the multinational sector and the agri sector.
As will the continuing role that agriculture can and will play in improving its environmental impact, while building on its very real and unique economic and social contribution.