The Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB) has published its initial UK cereal balance sheets for 2026/27.

The projections relate to wheat and barley.

Where wheat is concerned, 2026/27 the total availability figure is estimated at 16.338 Mt: down 215 Kt on the year.

The decline is driven by very low opening stocks, which are only partially balanced by slightly higher production and forecast imports. AHDB estimates 2026/27 opening stocks at 1.514 Mt, down 466 Kt on the year.

Significantly, 2026 UK wheat production is estimated at 12.074 Mt, up 116 Kt year on year.

A small decrease in planted area is offset by a slight improvement in estimated UK average yield.

While up on the year overall, regional yields varied widely, with a lack of rainfall impacting crops across the southern half of England. Output remains below the previous five-year average.

Wheat imports in 2026/27 are initially estimated at 2.750 Mt, up 135 Kt from 2025/26. Imports of high-specification milling wheat are expected to be minimal this season due to the large proportion of the UK wheat exceeding protein level requirements.

Total domestic consumption of wheat in 2026/27 is estimated to fall by 124 Kt on the year to 13.979 Mt. This is due to a drop in human and industrial (H&I) usage and similar usage in animal feed to last year.

In 2026/27, wheat usage in animal feed is estimated at 7.249 Mt, similar to 2025/26 (+29 Kt). While GB compound feed production is expected to remain relatively stable this season, relative price and availability of feed grains will impact feed rations.

Factors to consider are lower barley and oat availability, potential benefits of higher protein domestic wheat, and the price competitiveness of imported maize into different parts of GB and Northern Ireland.

Barley

In 2026/27, total availability of barley is estimated at 7.201 Mt, down by 658 Kt or 8% year-on-year. This fall is driven by the smallest crop since 2012/13, which outweighs a small rise in opening stocks.

AHDB is estimating 2026/27 barley opening stocks at 1.337 Mt, 58 Kt up year on year and 190 Kt higher than the previous five-year average.

With a smaller planted area for harvest 2026 and very mixed yields, UK barley production is estimated to fall by 753 Kt from 2025 levels to 5.614 Mt.

Total domestic consumption of barley in 2026/27 is estimated at 6.001 Mt, down 39 Kt from 2025/26.

In 2026/27, barley usage in animal feed is estimated to be similar to last season at 4.393 Mt, with compounder use and fed on farm forecast to be stable.

Feed barley is pricing competitively against other feed grains at the moment, but with the tighter balance sheet, this could shift through the season.

It is projected that the amount fed on farm will remain the same due to the need to replace forage during the winter.