The value of agricultural output at basic prices is expected to rise by €430 million (4%) to €11.7 billion this year, according to the advance estimate 2024 published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).
Agricultural output at basic prices is the sum of goods output at producer prices, plus the value of services provided (contract work), plus subsidies, less taxes on products.
The CSO’s first estimate of Agricultural Operating Surplus for 2024 also shows an increase of €951 million (33%) to €3.9 billion. The main reasons for this rise are higher output prices, a growth in subsidy payments, and a reduction in input costs.
The operating surplus is calculated by subtracting compensation of employees from factor income. The figure is comprised of the operating surplus earned by farmers and that earned by agricultural contractors.
The CSO said the operating surplus is an estimate of income before deductions for interest payments on borrowed capital, land annuities and rent paid by farmers to landowners for the use of their land.
The early estimate of outputs, inputs and income shows some recovery in agricultural incomes in 2024, CSO statistician in the Agricultural Accounts and Production Section, Mairead Griffin said, but added:
“These are still very early estimates which will change with the availability of end of year stock volumes, prices for the full year and the additional information required for reliable estimates of all output values and input costs.”
While 2023 results were dominated by large drops in the value of milk and cereals, this year’s first estimates show “modest gains” in output prices, increases in the value of subsidy payments, and some lower input costs, she said.
Livestock
Milk volumes are estimated to contract by 4% this year. However, with prices up by 7%, the value of milk is projected to increase by €85 million (2%) to €3.6 billion. This is still “well below” the value of €5.0 billion achieved in 2022.
Livestock values are expected to grow by €164 million (4%) to €4.7 billion this year, while cattle prices are set to rise by 3% this year. With cattle volumes down by 2%, their value is estimated to grow by €46 million to €3.1 billion.
Despite just marginal growth in pig prices (+1%), with an 8% increase in volumes, the value of pigs is expected to grow by €58 million (9%) to €727 million in 2024.
Sheep prices are expected to be significantly higher this year, increasing by 16%. With almost no change in sheep output volumes, their value will grow by €56 million to €401 million.
The value of poultry is expected to increase by €3 million to €226 million as volumes rise by 2% this year, according to the Output, Input and Income in Agriculture – Advance Estimate 2024.
Crops
The value of crops is expected to rise by €137 million (5%) to €2.6 billion in 2024. Adverse weather conditions at planting time caused significant reductions in both the area planted (-20%) and production (-24%) of winter cereals.
As winter wheat accounts for most of the wheat grown in Ireland, wheat values are expected to be lower. However, the area planted with spring cereals increased by 8%, and with higher yields, production grew by 25%.
As a result of this, the total value of cereals is projected to rise by €33 million (10%) to €377 million. While the value of barley and oats are estimated to grow, the value of wheat will fall due to a steep fall in output volumes.
However, excluding 2023, which was a very difficult year for cereal producers, the value of cereal production is expected to be the lowest since 2020 this year, the CSO said.
The volume of forage plants is expected to be down by 2%, but with prices rising by 4%, values will rise by €29 million to €1.5 billion. The value of other crops is set to rise by €74 million (11%) to €748 million, primarily due to a 8% rise in prices.
Agricultural input costs
The cost of fertilisers is expected to contract by €223 million (27%) this year due to prices falling by 30%. Meanwhile, with prices expected to be down by 13% and volumes up by 8%, the cost of feeding stuffs is to fall by €143 million (6%) to €2.1 billion.
The value of goods output at producer prices is up by €383 million. This is the total output of goods produced and sold by the agricultural sector during the year valued at producer prices, excluding the value of services provided, i.e. contract work.
The CSO said these figures are subject to change once the complete set of data for the full year becomes available. Updated figures for 2024 will be published in March 2025, followed by the final estimate in June 2025.