Beef prices in the EU have seen further increases, against the backdrop of “higher supply” levels this year which indicates stronger demand, according to a new report published by Rabobank.
According to the RaboResearch report, herd contraction in the world’s four largest beef producing countries is going to lead to the “first global beef supply reductions since the Covid-19 pandemic and will alter trade flows”.
Rabobank has forecast that Brazil and the United States are likely to lead production declines in 2025, but reductions in China, Europe, and New Zealand are also likely.
This is in contrast to trends during this year when there was higher beef production in the EU 27 states and the UK – it rose by 3% year on year in the first eight months of 2024.
“Beef production in Poland, Italy, Spain, UK, German and the Netherlands was up by 22%, 9%, 4%, 3%, 2% and 1% respectively while in France and Ireland it was down by 1% and 0.5% respectively,” the report detailed.
Beef markets
According to the latest Rabobank research report on global beef markets, despite higher supply levels average carcass prices in the EU rose in quarter three of this year – which it said indicated stronger demand.
The latest statistics suggest that the EU average beef carcass price was up by 10% in week 44.
However Rabobank believes that it is “unlikely that this production growth can be sustained next year given the ongoing structural decline of the cattle herd”.
Its research outlined that the “cow herd has contracted” in line with long-term trends in most of the major beef producing countries in the EU.
Ireland
Both France and German have experienced this contraction while the Spanish herd remained flat.
“On the other hand Ireland (+5%) and Belgium (+2.2%) recorded higher numbers in 1H (first half) 2024.
“In the case of Ireland, the growth is due to a seasonal impact, as when compared to the same period last year (1H 2023) the number of cows declined by 3%,” Rabobank stated.
It also highlighted that EU beef exports remain “dynamic” as other markets also keep looking more for more supply.