Grain prices have hardly changed over recent days, with London following the Paris market for the most part.

That's according to the latest arable market report from Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB).

It also stated that US maize and wheat markets ended down during this period while Europe broadly ended mixed but tracked sideways week-on-week.

The mix in market momentum last week was due to the latest United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, along with geopolitics and global demand.

While the market looks generally well supplied globally, uncertainty around geopolitics continues to cause uncertainty in global price sentiment.

US grain prices

The main driver of market pressure was the USDA unexpectedly raising its US maize production estimate to 407.3Mt, after increases to national yields.

Further to that, beginning stocks increased following the September grain stocks report.

Although demand was revised higher, the increase in supply was larger, pushing 2026/2027 US ending stocks up to 47Mt.

The US is now expected to produce the second-largest maize crop on record. This pressured US maize futures, which traded down by their daily limit on Friday.

The trade had expected cuts to this crop after summer heat and ongoing wet harvests. 

Another driver of market sentiment has been US weather. In the last seven days, US rains have been minimal, so progress should be positive in terms of getting crops harvested

However, with rain forecast in the coming week, a slowdown in field work could be a watch point for markets. 

European grain prices

Meanwhile, disruptions in Black Sea exports continue to underpin prices in Europe.

With minimal progress towards a complete ceasefire, the Ukrainian farm minister is seeking more alternative routes in Germany and the Baltics to increase trade capacity.

Current alternatives leave Ukrainian grain uncompetitive in the global market, due to increased logistical costs.

Looking ahead, geopolitical uncertainty continues to underpin grain markets, with information and news constantly changing.

For example, the US president Donald Trump's surprise announcement yesterday of an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine was later followed by Russian attacks, all of which adds to volatility in commodity markets.

Irish crops

Of specific interest to Irish tillage farmers will be the recently published 2027 crop performance projections by Teagasc.

They point to a growing pressure on all income and production costs.

For winter wheat, the projected breakeven yield figure is 3.5t/ac (grain only). This is based on an envisaged price of €220/t.

Subsidies are not included in this calculation nor is the cost of rented land.