The suspension of Brazilian agri-food imports to the EU, including poultry such as chicken, could result in an increase in prices for the consumer, according to new research.

According to RaboResearch,the global poultry industry continues to operate under strong growth conditions, with production expanding above 5% in many major markets in Q1 2026, year-on-year (YOY).

RaboResearch has again increased its global market growth outlook for 2026 from 2.5%-3% to 3%-3.5%, driven by robust growth in markets such as China, the EU, South Africa, the Philippines, and Brazil.

The industry continues to benefit from a favourable price position, particularly relative to beef, supporting an ongoing shift toward chicken consumption, according to the report.

However, weaker economic conditions and increasingly price sensitive consumers may start to weigh on chicken demand, especially in lower-income markets in southern Asia and parts of Africa.

An increasing number of countries are implementing food security strategies, accelerating a shift from global trade toward local production.

This trend is visible across parts of Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.

China is a clear example, having transitioned from the world’s largest chicken importer to a significant net exporter – marking a key turning point in global poultry markets, according to the research report.

Global poultry trade

Despite this longer-term shift toward localisation, global poultry trade remains strong, with 3.5% YOY growth in Q1 2026 followingseveral weaker years.

This is notable given ongoing geopolitical disruptions, including the Iran war, according to RaboResearch.

Trade flows to the Gulf have remained resilient, supported by key exporters and transit trade hubs like Brazil, Ukraine, Turkey, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Oman.

The interim US-Iran agreement, which extends the ceasefire and supports the reopening of commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, has reduced near-term risks to energy and shipping markets.

This could support a recovery in trade flows of poultry and feed ingredients.

Global meat and poultry trade could face significant disruption from the potential removal of Brazilian products from EU imports.

If implemented, this would likely reshape trade flows, pushing EU prices higher and Brazilian prices lower and increasing EU imports from alternative suppliers such as Thailand and China.

RaboResearch has stated that companies will need to sharpen their focus on operational excellence as volatility increases and market conditions become more challenging.

Key risk factors include geopolitical uncertainty, potential El Nino impacts, and a tight breeding stock market.

Under these more uncertain and volatile conditions, disciplined and restrained supply growth strategies will be essential to maintain market balance, according to teh researchers.

Trends for the second half of 2026

The next six months are likely to see a changing economic context with a more price-driven consumer.

Geopolitical developments, including the impact of the Iran conflict, ongoing trade tensions, and China’s shifting role in global trade;
The spread of bird flu risks to the Southern Hemisphere, increasing exposure for key exporters such as Brazil;
The EU’s pending removal of Brazilian poultry, beef, and egg imports due to non-compliance with its One Health antibiotics policy framework;
Implementation of the Mercosur trade agreement and a possible reshuffling of EU imports from Brazil to other Mercosur countries;
The renewal of the USMCA and its implications for intra-regional trade in chicken and feed ingredients;
Feed costs dynamics driven by the potential impacts of a likely El Nino event on global – and particularly Southern Hemisphere – markets, geopolitical uncertainty, and potential volatility linked to the trajectory of the interim US-Iran agreement.

Poultry in EU

According to RaboResearch, the European market has shifted since Q4 2025, when production started to increase significantly after very tight market conditions in the first eight months of the year.

EU chicken placements for the first four months of 2026 are now 6% higher than in the same months of 2025, when Poland was heavily impacted by bird flu and EU chicken production growth was only 1% higher compared to 2024.

The industry has been in expansion mode after several strong years with attractive margins.

Some producers increased production on the assumption that eastern EU output would again be heavily affected by bird flu. This has indeed occurred.

The 2025/2026 season has been severe, with 727 outbreaks during the winter period (October 2025 to May 2026), resulting in the culling of 27 million birds, of which only 13% were in the broiler sector.

Poland (41% of total birds culled), Italy (12%), and Germany (9%) were the most heavily impacted in terms of birds culled.

Markets recovering

European chicken margins remain positive but are under growing pressure, according to the report.

Increased supply, particularly in March and April in central Europe (Poland, Hungary, Romania), has impacted prices, especially in north-west Europe.

Southern European industries have been less affected, as they tend to import less from these countries.

Falling prices are raising concerns among producers, particularly as this coincides with broader economic pressure since the start of the Iran war (via price inflation), and input costs (especially feed) have increased while hatching egg prices have also remained high.

Customers are increasingly putting pressure on producers to lower prices in a more price-sensitive consumer environment.

Supply discipline needed

The outlook for the industry remains positive, but disciplined growth will be essential, according to the researchers.

EU chicken consumption continues to increase (expected to be up 2.5% in 2026), driven by trends such as convenience, health, sustainability, and high beef prices.

However, the 6% growth rate seen in Q1 is too high. Greater supply discipline is needed, even as bird flu and Newcastle disease continue to challenge supply.

The wild card for the 2026 outlook is Brazil. The expansion of 180,000mt of chicken exports under the Mercosur agreement started in May 2026, allowing 29,000mt of in-quota exports from Mercosur countries in the 2026/2027 quota year.

However, the European Commission has delisted all Brazilian beef, chicken, and egg companies from exporting to the EU, beginning in September 2026, due to Brazil’s non-compliance with the EU’s antibiotics policy framework.

Although discussions are ongoing and changes may still occur, if this measure remains in place, it could lead to significant increases in breast meat prices later in the year.