Irish farm incomes could be dragged down by slowing economic growth next year, economists warned today (Tuesday, December 2).

Average farm incomes could fall by 19% year on year in 2026 according to Teagasc economists who outlined today that some farming systems are facing more significant challenges than others.

This would bring the average farm income in Ireland next year down to just over €40,000 compared to an estimated €49,400 in 2025.

Teagasc today published its Outlook 2026: Economic Prospects for Agriculture report, which sets out the prospects for Irish farmers for next year.

The report paints a stark picture of which farm sectors could be under the most pressure next year.

Economists detailed that "geopolitical and trade related tensions and concern that some stock market prices may be inflated" has contributed to growing uncertainty as 2025 draws to a close.

Farm prospects

Some sectors such as dairy are set to exit the year in a much weaker position than they had previously enjoyed.

According to Teagasc economists dairy commodity prices "will be considerably lower than 12 months ago, particularly so for butter".

They have forecast that Irish milk prices in 2026 could be down by "more than 20% on their average level for 2025" which in turn will reduce milk cheques.

When it comes to cattle average Irish finished cattle prices are forecast to be 5% higher compared to 2025 but average weanling prices in 2026 are forecast to be 5% lower compared to this year.

Tillage farmers meanwhile are likely to see little movement on one crucial issue for them - harvest prices - in 2026, according to Teagasc economists.

They have forecast that "2026 harvest prices will be similar to those of the 2025 harvest".

Economists have also indicated that "approximately 30% of specialist tillage farmers will return a negative market based net margin in 2026".

Pig farmers could also face different challenges in 2026 with economists forecasting "lower pig prices" which would mean that "profitability is expected to be marginal" next year.

But the outlook for Irish and EU lamb prices for 2026 is positive, with prices forecast "to remain at the high levels observed in 2025".

Teagasc economists also believe that high prices in Irish export markets - UK and EU - will continue to support Irish prices next year.

They have forecast that next year the average gross margin per hectare earned by Irish mid-season lowland lamb enterprises could increase to €1,092.