How did farmers respond to the latest election opinion poll?

The recent Sunday Times / Behaviour and Analysis Opinion Poll produced a somewhat surprising result, showing that Fianna Fáil is 12 points ahead of Fine Gael, just three weeks ahead of the 2020 General Election.

But what was the breakdown for farmers? The opinion poll divided the respondents into various categories, including by age, location and social class.

People from a farming household was one of the three social class categories, so it’s not difficult to see what farmers are thinking.

However, Ian McShane, who prepared the results of the report, highlighted to AgriLand that the sample size for the farming community was relatively small – only 207 people out of 3,301 total respondents.

The poll found that the only 35% of farmers are satisfied with how the Government is running the country, with 63% saying they were dissatisfied. 2% said they had no opinion on this question.

In terms of the performance of Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, 34% of farmers said they were satisfied, while 63% said they were dissatisfied, and 4% said they had no opinion.

Interestingly, the dissatisfaction figure for both the Government and the Taoiseach were identical.

Fine Gael releases its agriculture policy for the election today at an event in Fermoy Mart in Co. Cork. Both the Taoiseach and Minister for Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Michael Creed, were in attendance.

Turning to Fianna Fáil, and its leader Micheál Martin fared better, with 61% of farmers giving him approval for his performance as leader of the party, while 32% were not as gone on him. 7% said they had no opinion.

Sinn Féin leader Mary-Lou McDonald was in a similar position as the Taoiseach, only achieving a 34% approval rating among farmers, with 58% being dissatisfied in her performance as the party’s leader.

Finally, in terms of party/leader satisfaction, Labour’s Brendan Howlin didn’t fare too badly, achieving a 43% satisfaction rating among farmers, with 44% saying they were dissatisfied.

Voting intentions

Respondents to the poll were also asked who would get their first preference vote “if there was an election tomorrow”.

In terms of the potential farmer vote, Fianna Fáil fared best, with 24% of farmers saying they would vote for that party. For Fine Gael, that figure was 15%.

Only 6% of farmers said they would vote for Sinn Féin, and only 3% went with Labour. However, it is worth noting that 36% of farmer respondents said they did not know what way they would vote, and 16% said they would vote for independents or other parties.

When undecided voters are excluded, the voting intention figures among farmers increase to the following: 38% for Fianna Fáil; 23% for Fine Gael; 10% for Sinn Féin; 5% for Labour; and 24% for independents or other parties.

The poll also compiles figures for voting intentions among voters who are not undecided, and who also reported that they “will definitely vote”.

According to these figures, the proportion of farmer respondents who will give their first preference to Fine Gael falls to 18%, while the figure for Fianna Fáil rises slightly to 39%.

A significant majority of farmers – 75% – said they would “definitely vote”, while 21% said they would “probably vote”.

4% said they “might or might not vote”. Interestingly, farmers were the only social class division where no respondents indicated they would “probably” or “definitely” not vote.