The total accumulative slaughtering of cull cows over the course of 2018 to date has increased by approximately 4%, according to Joe Burke, beef and livestock manager with Bord Bia.

However, in light of the acute drought situation in some regions, the impact is becoming more significant on a weekly basis as farmers come under mounting pressure to cull more severely.

During the week ending July 22, the total number of cattle slaughtered at Department of Agriculture approved beef export plants amounted to 36,307 head – the fourth weekly increase in a row.

“In terms of cull cows there hasn’t been a hugely dramatic increase for the year to date or even in recent weeks.

It has been up to about 2,000 extra cows being slaughtered. It’s about 15% to 20% extra cows being killed over and above last year’s levels.

“They’re coming from the dairy side and I’m sure that will be reflected in the average carcass weights in a few months’ time of animals that are being slaughtered now in July.

“They will show a reduction in average carcass weights in the level of finish and the level of fat cover too; it is likely that a higher proportion of them are under-finished, or maybe not as marketable as you’d normally expect down to the grazing conditions and down to the available feed really for dairy farmers at the moment,” said Burke.

He stated that the increase is largely, but not exclusively, coming from the dairy side.

“The numbers don’t fully reflect the argument that we are seeing extra dairy cows – we are seeing extra bullocks, extra young bulls being slaughtered as well by beef farmers.

So while there are additional cull cows around they would be a huge contributor – but they wouldn’t be the sole contributor to the problem.

With factory books filling up, Burke says there are some delays in the chain; however, he adds that processors do have capacity to deal with the extra cows.

He noted that it had been anticipated that an additional 30,000 to 50,000 cattle would be slaughtered over the course of the year.

However, he projects that those targets will now be exceeded.

“Given that there are additional cull cows being slaughtered, and likely to be also for the coming months, we are likely to exceed even the upper range.

“You could see an extra 20,000 or 30,000 head coming out depending on what happens over the next few weeks and months,” he said adding that hopefully some of the grazing season and fodder reserves will be recovered.

Projected price impact

In terms of the potential impact on price over the coming months; Burke says markets for prime beef won’t be affected.

“Last week’s kill was high, it was over 36,000, but there were plenty of weeks last September and October when there were 40,000 cattle killed.

“And even in spite of those big numbers that we were seeing towards the end of last year, we actually saw cattle prices rising week on week so it’s not all about supply either.

In spite of the high number of animals being slaughtered between the end of October and the beginning of December the cattle price went up by 25c/kg in the space of the six-week period.

With the Department of Agriculture also currently engaged in talks with Veterinary Ireland over issues related to a shortage of veterinary inspectors and personnel resources at meat plants; Burke is hopeful that the concerns will be resolved between both parties.

A mediation process – which is being managed by the former head of the Workplace Relations Committee (WRC) Kieran Mulvey – is currently underway.

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“Any restrictions or slow-down in capacity impacts are not wanted. The vets want to get it resolved themselves too so there is a good appetite to try and sort it out so hopefully they can avoid any additional hassle,” said Burke.

“In a factory environment where you might have an extra 20 or 30 cattle over what you had anticipated, a bit of flexibility is always appreciated,” he added.

‘Extremely serious’

At farm level he warns that the pressure to maintain feed stocks is “extremely serious”.

“When guys are doing their budget and where they have been unable to make a second cut of silage into their first cut of silage, and where they are eating into their winter reserves – that it is extremely stressful.

“They are looking at surplus animals around the yard and whether it means selling store animals or selling surplus cull animals into the factory, you wouldn’t blame them for looking at those options,” he said.

The distressing situation is not unique to Ireland; with ramifications of drought also being felt Europe-wide.

“Up until now throughout the year we have seen good markets and good demand around Europe – prime cattle especially are in strong demand.

“And, up until about a month ago, the cull cows were also in a strong position price-wise. But we have seen up to 40c/kg come off that on the cull cow side – probably on the prime cattle side we have seen prices fall by 25c/kg and much of that is supply related.

“There is no evidence to suggest that those sales have fallen off, or that those customers are’t still there, but it is a bit more competitive now – not just in Ireland but even in northern Europe there is evidence of a drought-related surplus of beef on the market in Scandinavia.

“Normally that would be a good market for our fourth quarter and for some of that cull cow product; but unfortunately at the moment, in the likes of Sweden for example, there is a lot of Swedish cow beef on the market as a result of their own fodder crisis.”

However, the Bord Bia expert remains optimistic that the tables will soon turn.

You would have to think that the worst is behind us; we’ve seen a significant decline in the last month or six weeks.

“But there are some signs of stability, we’re not seeing a price recovery just yet, the declines are evening up and we are seeing quotes holding rather than continuing to decline,” he concluded.