Grain market turns negative for maize and soyabeans

Investor sentiment has turned increasingly negative towards maize and soybeans, according to the IFA’s latest grain market update.

It says the negative sentiment in the market comes on the back of the release of the USDA’s latest world supply and demand estimates last Friday.

The IFA reports that world closing maize stocks for the 2013/’14 marketing year are forecast 10mt higher. In addition, it is forecasting a record world maize harvest for the 2014/15 crop year. This is on the back of higher yields despite the prospect of lower US sowings. Carryout maize stocks for the 2014/15 crop year are also predicted to increase significantly by a further 22mt.

It also notes that soybean production for the new crop year is also forecast to reach record highs due to a combination of increased yields and plantings. On the wheat front, world supplies are forecast to fall marginally for the new crop season by less than 1% and production down by an estimated 2%.

The IFA also outlines that US new season maize stocks are forecast to increase due to a larger carryout stock, lower consumption (-2%) and increased yields (+4%). On the oilseed front US production for the new crop season is forecast to increase by 11% on last season with soybean production (+10.5%) accounting for most of the increase. US soybean stocks are forecast to increase by 7.5% as increased production more than replenishes current stock lows.

The IFA is reporting that falling world prices have impacted Irish prices. Spot dried wheat is trading lower from €214 to €216/t compared €217/t to €219/t last week. Old crop barley is a little easier trading from €185 to €186/t compared to €186/t to €189/t the previous week. New crop wheat took the brunt of the fall trading from €198/t to €200/t, down from €205/t to €206/t last week. New crop barley is weaker by €2/t trading from €185/t to €186/t compared to €187/t to €190/t on Friday. Old crop maize is trading at €196/t with new crop down €3/t to €195/t.

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