Grain price: 75-80% chance of El Nino; could impact on price

The wheat harvest in South America is underway and so far yields in Argentina are up on last year. As of November 21, 22% of the Argentinian wheat crop had been harvested. Corn and sunflower planting is also well under way for the season ahead.

Meanwhile, the World Meteorological Organisation is predicting the weather for that season and has stated that there is a 75-80% chance of a weak El Nino forming within the next three months, which could impact on 2019 crop performance and therefore prices.

Back in October, US economist Dan Basse told the attendance at the R&H Hall conference that an El Nino was on the way.

The irregular weather complex brings drought in Australasia and heavy rain in South America every few years. Basse explained that the El Nino could impact on soybeans, corn and wheat crops in South America.

Also Read: Potential in wheat…due to warm water in the Pacific


LIFFE wheat for January 2019 showed little signs of movement this week. It opened the week (November 26) at £169.50/t and dropped slightly on Tuesday (November 27) to £169.00/t.

It then slipped to £168.75/t on Wednesday (November 28). The January price finished the week (November 30) at £168.90/t.


MATIF wheat for December was stable this week. On Monday (November 26) the price stood at €199.50/t.

It dropped only slightly on Tuesday (November 27) to €198.75/t and continued to hover in the same range on Wednesday and Thursday (November 28 and 29) at €199.75/t and €199/t respectively.


Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat for December was trading at 507.50c/bu on Monday (November 26), but dropped to 498c/bu on Tuesday (November 27) and had dropped to 426c/bu by Thursday (November 29). The March price was higher at 507c/bu on Thursday (November 29).